Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Tata Metaliks Limited (NSE:TATAMETALI) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does Tata Metaliks Carry?
As you can see below, at the end of March 2020, Tata Metaliks had ₹2.11b of debt, up from ₹385.3m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has ₹1.52b in cash leading to net debt of about ₹595.9m.
How Strong Is Tata Metaliks's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Tata Metaliks had liabilities of ₹6.71b due within 12 months, and liabilities of ₹1.04b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₹1.52b as well as receivables valued at ₹2.81b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by ₹3.4b.
Tata Metaliks has a market capitalization of ₹15.0b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
While Tata Metaliks's low debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.23 suggests only modest use of debt, the fact that EBIT only covered the interest expense by 5.7 times last year does give us pause. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. Unfortunately, Tata Metaliks's EBIT flopped 19% over the last four quarters. If earnings continue to decline at that rate then handling the debt will be more difficult than taking three children under 5 to a fancy pants restaurant. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is Tata Metaliks's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. In the last three years, Tata Metaliks's free cash flow amounted to 36% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
Tata Metaliks's struggle to grow its EBIT had us second guessing its balance sheet strength, but the other data-points we considered were relatively redeeming. In particular, its net debt to EBITDA was re-invigorating. We think that Tata Metaliks's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. Over time, share prices tend to follow earnings per share, so if you're interested in Tata Metaliks, you may well want to click here to check an interactive graph of its earnings per share history.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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About NSEI:TATAMETALI
Tata Metaliks
Tata Metaliks Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of pig iron and ductile iron pipes in India and internationally.
Flawless balance sheet with acceptable track record.