Despite lower earnings than five years ago, Nahar Poly Films (NSE:NAHARPOLY) investors are up 784% since then
Nahar Poly Films Limited (NSE:NAHARPOLY) shareholders might be concerned after seeing the share price drop 10% in the last week. But that does not change the realty that the stock's performance has been terrific, over five years. Indeed, the share price is up a whopping 751% in that time. So it might be that some shareholders are taking profits after good performance. But the real question is whether the business fundamentals can improve over the long term. We love happy stories like this one. The company should be really proud of that performance!
While this past week has detracted from the company's five-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.
View our latest analysis for Nahar Poly Films
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Nahar Poly Films' earnings per share are down 4.3% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.
By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the decline in earnings per share is not representative of how the business has changed over the years. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
The modest 0.4% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. In contrast revenue growth of 21% per year is probably viewed as evidence that Nahar Poly Films is growing, a real positive. It's quite possible that management are prioritizing revenue growth over EPS growth at the moment.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
This free interactive report on Nahar Poly Films' balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Nahar Poly Films' TSR for the last 5 years was 784%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that Nahar Poly Films shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 26% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. Having said that, the five-year TSR of 55% a year, is even better. Potential buyers might understandably feel they've missed the opportunity, but it's always possible business is still firing on all cylinders. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Nahar Poly Films (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Indian exchanges.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Nahar Poly Films might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NSEI:NAHARPOLY
Nahar Poly Films
Manufactures and sells bi-axially oriented polypropylene films in India and internationally.
Proven track record with adequate balance sheet.