Jubilant Ingrevia Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

As you might know, Jubilant Ingrevia Limited (NSE:JUBLINGREA) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 2.3% short of analyst estimates at ₹10b, and statutory earnings of ₹3.08 per share missed forecasts by 9.4%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Jubilant Ingrevia after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Jubilant Ingrevia

After the latest results, the three analysts covering Jubilant Ingrevia are now predicting revenues of ₹47.1b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a solid 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 72% to ₹18.75. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹45.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹17.87 in 2025. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 11% to ₹622per share. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Jubilant Ingrevia analyst has a price target of ₹762 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹445. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Jubilant Ingrevia shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Jubilant Ingrevia is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 21% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 13% annual decline over the past year. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 11% annually. So it looks like Jubilant Ingrevia is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Jubilant Ingrevia's earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Jubilant Ingrevia going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Jubilant Ingrevia that you need to be mindful of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com