Earnings Miss: Hindalco Industries Limited Missed EPS By 31% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Hindalco Industries Limited (NSE:HINDALCO), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with ₹570b revenue coming in 4.5% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of ₹13.81 missed the mark badly, arriving some 31% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Hindalco Industries

Following the latest results, Hindalco Industries' 25 analysts are now forecasting revenues of ₹2.29t in 2025. This would be an okay 4.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 20% to ₹58.39. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₹2.34t and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹61.38 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the ₹742 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Hindalco Industries, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at ₹905 and the most bearish at ₹597 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Hindalco Industries shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Hindalco Industries' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 5.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 15% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 11% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Hindalco Industries is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Hindalco Industries going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Hindalco Industries that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.