Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals (NSEI:GSFC) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of GSFC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

GSFC (₹130.25) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (₹28.9)

GSFC fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	5/6

GSFC Stock Overview

Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited manufactures and sells fertilizers and industrial products in India.

Rewards

Price-To-Earnings ratio (5.8x) is below the Indian market (20.5x)

Earnings grew by 99.6% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 22.2% per year for the next 3 years

Unstable dividend track record

Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Competitors

Bharat Rasayan

NSEI:BHARATRAS

₹46.0b

Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers

BSE:524230

₹43.1b

Sharda Cropchem

BSE:538666

₹55.8b

Deepak Fertilisers And Petrochemicals

BSE:500645

₹73.3b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	₹130.25
52 Week High	₹198.80
52 Week Low	₹98.10
Beta	0.80
1 Month Change	-23.63%
3 Month Change	-25.17%
1 Year Change	11.90%
3 Year Change	43.76%
5 Year Change	5.77%
Change since IPO	352.26%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 19

With EPS Growth And More, Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals (NSE:GSFC) Makes An Interesting Case

Investors are often guided by the idea of discovering 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks...

May 12

Returns At Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals (NSE:GSFC) Appear To Be Weighed Down

To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Ideally, a business will...

Shareholder Returns

	GSFC	IN Chemicals	IN Market
7D	-5.8%	0.6%	0.6%
1Y	11.9%	-3.1%	-0.2%

Return vs Industry: GSFC exceeded the Indian Chemicals industry which returned -3.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GSFC exceeded the Indian Market which returned 0.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is GSFC's price volatile compared to industry and market?
GSFC volatility
GSFC Average Weekly Movement	8.3%
Chemicals Industry Average Movement	6.5%
Market Average Movement	6.8%
10% most volatile stocks in IN Market	9.8%
10% least volatile stocks in IN Market	4.4%

Stable Share Price: GSFC is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Indian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 8% a week.

Volatility Over Time: GSFC's weekly volatility (8%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1962	2,193	Mukesh Puri	https://www.gsfclimited.com

Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited manufactures and sells fertilizers and industrial products in India. The company offers industrial products, such as anhydrous ammonia, argon gas, caprolactam, melamine, methanol, methyl ethyl ketoxime, nylon-6, oleum, sulphuric acid, anone-anol mixture, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone, hydroxylamine sulphate, nitric acid, and technical grade urea. It also provides fertilizer products, including neem urea, ammonium sulphate, di-ammonium phosphate, ammonium phosphate sulphate, NPK, water soluble fertilizers, muriate of potash, micro mixes, and gypsum, as well as agro products.

Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Fundamentals Summary

How do Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
GSFC fundamental statistics
Market Cap	₹51.96b
Earnings (TTM)	₹8.99b
Revenue (TTM)	₹90.83b

5.8x

P/E Ratio

0.6x

P/S Ratio

Is GSFC overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
GSFC income statement (TTM)
Revenue	₹90.83b
Cost of Revenue	₹63.18b
Gross Profit	₹27.64b
Other Expenses	₹18.66b
Earnings	₹8.99b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	22.55
Gross Margin	30.44%
Net Profit Margin	9.89%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0.02%

How did GSFC perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.9%

Current Dividend Yield

11%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is GSFC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GSFC?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for GSFC. This is calculated by dividing GSFC's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is GSFC's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	₹51.96b

GSFC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	2.7x
PEG Ratio	-0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GSFC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

GSFC PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for GSFC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	14.8x
BHARATRAS Bharat Rasayan	26.1x	n/a	₹46.0b
524230 Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers	6.3x	n/a	₹43.1b
538666 Sharda Cropchem	16x	15.1%	₹55.8b
500645 Deepak Fertilisers And Petrochemicals	10.8x	13.4%	₹73.3b
GSFC Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals	5.8x	-22.2%	₹52.0b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GSFC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.8x) compared to the peer average (14.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GSFC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the IN Chemicals Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GSFC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.8x) compared to the Indian Chemicals industry average (16.8x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GSFC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GSFC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	5.8x
Fair PE Ratio	8.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GSFC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GSFC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GSFC (₹130.25) is trading above our estimate of fair value (₹28.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GSFC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: GSFC's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

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Future Growth

How is Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-22.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GSFC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-22.2% per year).

Earnings vs Market: GSFC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-22.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: GSFC's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: GSFC's revenue (3.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Indian market (11.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GSFC's revenue (3.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if GSFC's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Past Performance

How has Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

14.7%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GSFC has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: GSFC's current net profit margins (9.9%) are higher than last year (5.9%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GSFC's earnings have grown by 14.7% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: GSFC's earnings growth over the past year (99.6%) exceeds its 5-year average (14.7% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: GSFC earnings growth over the past year (99.6%) exceeded the Chemicals industry 29.1%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: GSFC's Return on Equity (7.6%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: GSFC's short term assets (₹45.7B) exceed its short term liabilities (₹13.7B).

Long Term Liabilities: GSFC's short term assets (₹45.7B) exceed its long term liabilities (₹9.8B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: GSFC has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: GSFC's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 12.2% to 0.02% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: GSFC's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (8407.8%).

Interest Coverage: GSFC's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (116.7x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

1.92%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: GSFC's dividend (1.92%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Indian market (0.42%).

High Dividend: GSFC's dividend (1.92%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the Indian market (1.87%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: GSFC's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: GSFC's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (11.1%), GSFC's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonable cash payout ratio (70%), GSFC's dividend payments are covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Mukesh Puri (58 yo)

1.5yrs

Tenure

₹1,332

Compensation

Shri. Mukesh Gulshanrai Puri, IAS, served as Chairman (Nominee of Government of Gujarat) of Gujarat Industries Power Company Limited since 2022 until April 26, 2022. He serves as Managing Director and Exec...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Mukesh's total compensation ($USD16.86) is below average for companies of similar size in the Indian market ($USD336.16K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Mukesh's compensation with company performance.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: GSFC's management team is considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: GSFC's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.6 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/01 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/07/01 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2022/03/31