Improved Earnings Required Before Goa Carbon Limited (NSE:GOACARBON) Stock's 33% Jump Looks Justified

Goa Carbon Limited (NSE:GOACARBON) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 33% share price jump in the last month. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 26%.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, Goa Carbon's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.1x might still make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in India, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 32x and even P/E's above 59x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.

For example, consider that Goa Carbon's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the disappointing earnings performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

Check out our latest analysis for Goa Carbon

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Goa Carbon will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Does Growth Match The Low P/E?

Goa Carbon's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very poor growth or even falling earnings, and importantly, perform much worse than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 10%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 25% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's understandable that Goa Carbon's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are expecting to see the recent limited growth rates continue into the future and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.

The Key Takeaway

Even after such a strong price move, Goa Carbon's P/E still trails the rest of the market significantly. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Goa Carbon maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its recent three-year growth being lower than the wider market forecast, as expected. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 2 warning signs for Goa Carbon that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Goa Carbon. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.