Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Ester Industries Limited (NSE:ESTER) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does Ester Industries Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2023 Ester Industries had debt of ₹8.16b, up from ₹6.38b in one year. However, it does have ₹2.06b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about ₹6.10b.
How Healthy Is Ester Industries' Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Ester Industries had liabilities of ₹3.59b due within 12 months and liabilities of ₹6.12b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₹2.06b as well as receivables valued at ₹1.52b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by ₹6.13b.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of ₹7.74b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Ester Industries' use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Weak interest cover of 1.3 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.6 hit our confidence in Ester Industries like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. Even worse, Ester Industries saw its EBIT tank 76% over the last 12 months. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Ester Industries's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Ester Industries burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
On the face of it, Ester Industries's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. And furthermore, its interest cover also fails to instill confidence. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think Ester Industries has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Ester Industries you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NSEI:ESTER
Ester Industries
Engages in the manufacture and sale of polyester films in India and internationally.
Slight and slightly overvalued.