Stock Analysis

Atul's (NSE:ATUL) investors will be pleased with their impressive 103% return over the last five years

Published
NSEI:ATUL

If you buy and hold a stock for many years, you'd hope to be making a profit. Better yet, you'd like to see the share price move up more than the market average. But Atul Ltd (NSE:ATUL) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 99% over five years, which is below the market return. Looking at the last year alone, the stock is up 8.3%.

With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

View our latest analysis for Atul

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Atul actually saw its EPS drop 7.7% per year.

Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Because earnings per share don't seem to match up with the share price, we'll take a look at other metrics instead.

The modest 0.3% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. In contrast revenue growth of 6.4% per year is probably viewed as evidence that Atul is growing, a real positive. It's quite possible that management are prioritizing revenue growth over EPS growth at the moment.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

NSEI:ATUL Earnings and Revenue Growth September 18th 2024

Atul is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Atul the TSR over the last 5 years was 103%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Atul shareholders are up 8.7% for the year (even including dividends). But that return falls short of the market. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 15% per year for five years. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Atul better, we need to consider many other factors. Take risks, for example - Atul has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Indian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.