Is APL Apollo Tubes (NSE:APLAPOLLO) A Risky Investment?

September 25, 2022
  •  Updated
November 13, 2022
NSEI:APLAPOLLO
Source: Shutterstock

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies APL Apollo Tubes Limited (NSE:APLAPOLLO) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for APL Apollo Tubes

What Is APL Apollo Tubes's Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at March 2022 APL Apollo Tubes had debt of ₹5.81b, up from ₹5.20b in one year. However, it does have ₹3.81b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about ₹2.00b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NSEI:APLAPOLLO Debt to Equity History September 25th 2022

A Look At APL Apollo Tubes' Liabilities

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that APL Apollo Tubes had liabilities of ₹14.3b falling due within a year, and liabilities of ₹5.59b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₹3.81b as well as receivables valued at ₹4.21b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by ₹11.9b.

Since publicly traded APL Apollo Tubes shares are worth a total of ₹271.4b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse. But either way, APL Apollo Tubes has virtually no net debt, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

APL Apollo Tubes's net debt is only 0.23 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 34.3 times the size. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. While APL Apollo Tubes doesn't seem to have gained much on the EBIT line, at least earnings remain stable for now. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine APL Apollo Tubes's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. In the last three years, APL Apollo Tubes's free cash flow amounted to 49% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.

Our View

The good news is that APL Apollo Tubes's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. And that's just the beginning of the good news since its net debt to EBITDA is also very heartening. Taking all this data into account, it seems to us that APL Apollo Tubes takes a pretty sensible approach to debt. While that brings some risk, it can also enhance returns for shareholders. Over time, share prices tend to follow earnings per share, so if you're interested in APL Apollo Tubes, you may well want to click here to check an interactive graph of its earnings per share history.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether APL Apollo Tubes is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis