APL Apollo Tubes Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's shaping up to be a tough period for APL Apollo Tubes Limited (NSE:APLAPOLLO), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with ₹48b revenue coming in 4.7% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of ₹1.94 missed the mark badly, arriving some 63% below what was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on APL Apollo Tubes after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for APL Apollo Tubes

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from APL Apollo Tubes' 15 analysts is for revenues of ₹212.3b in 2025. This would reflect a solid 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 27% to ₹26.18. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₹218.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹31.88 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the ₹1,680 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values APL Apollo Tubes at ₹1,877 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹1,109. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that APL Apollo Tubes' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 29% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 22% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that APL Apollo Tubes is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded APL Apollo Tubes' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₹1,680, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for APL Apollo Tubes going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with APL Apollo Tubes .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.