Results: Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

It's been a good week for Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (NSE:BPCL) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 4.0% to ₹357. Revenues were ₹1.0t, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at ₹14.49, an impressive 32% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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After the latest results, the consensus from Bharat Petroleum's 14 analysts is for revenues of ₹4.10t in 2026, which would reflect a small 7.3% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 3.4% to ₹47.29 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₹4.27t and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹47.21 in 2026. The consensus seems maybe a little more pessimistic, trimming their revenue forecasts after the latest results even though there was no change to its EPS estimates.

See our latest analysis for Bharat Petroleum

The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of ₹374, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on Bharat Petroleum's market value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Bharat Petroleum analyst has a price target of ₹470 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹240. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 14% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 12% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.4% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Bharat Petroleum is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Still, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at ₹374, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Bharat Petroleum going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Bharat Petroleum is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those can't be ignored...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.