Stock Analysis

Here's Why Trident (NSE:TRIDENT) Can Manage Its Debt Responsibly

NSEI:TRIDENT
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Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Trident Limited (NSE:TRIDENT) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

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How Much Debt Does Trident Carry?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Trident had ₹13.7b of debt in March 2023, down from ₹15.7b, one year before. However, it also had ₹3.65b in cash, and so its net debt is ₹10.1b.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NSEI:TRIDENT Debt to Equity History May 26th 2023

How Healthy Is Trident's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Trident had liabilities of ₹14.6b due within 12 months and liabilities of ₹11.7b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had ₹3.65b in cash and ₹2.77b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by ₹19.9b.

Given Trident has a market capitalization of ₹162.7b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Trident has net debt of just 1.0 times EBITDA, indicating that it is certainly not a reckless borrower. And it boasts interest cover of 8.2 times, which is more than adequate. The modesty of its debt load may become crucial for Trident if management cannot prevent a repeat of the 44% cut to EBIT over the last year. When it comes to paying off debt, falling earnings are no more useful than sugary sodas are for your health. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Trident's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Trident produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 59% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

Based on what we've seen Trident is not finding it easy, given its EBIT growth rate, but the other factors we considered give us cause to be optimistic. In particular, we thought its net debt to EBITDA was a positive. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Trident's use of debt. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Trident you should know about.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Trident might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.