Is Nagreeka Exports (NSE:NAGREEKEXP) A Risky Investment?

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Nagreeka Exports Limited (NSE:NAGREEKEXP) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Nagreeka Exports

How Much Debt Does Nagreeka Exports Carry?

As you can see below, Nagreeka Exports had ₹1.92b of debt, at September 2023, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.

How Healthy Is Nagreeka Exports' Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Nagreeka Exports had liabilities of ₹1.71b due within 12 months, and liabilities of ₹641.5m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of ₹28.6m and ₹254.8m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by ₹2.07b.

This deficit casts a shadow over the ₹892.5m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Nagreeka Exports would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Weak interest cover of 2.3 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 7.1 hit our confidence in Nagreeka Exports like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. Looking on the bright side, Nagreeka Exports boosted its EBIT by a silky 94% in the last year. Like a mother's loving embrace of a newborn that sort of growth builds resilience, putting the company in a stronger position to manage its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Nagreeka Exports will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Nagreeka Exports burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

To be frank both Nagreeka Exports's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that's encouraging. Overall, it seems to us that Nagreeka Exports's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Nagreeka Exports you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.