Stock Analysis

Earnings Update: Arvind Limited (NSE:ARVIND) Just Reported Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

NSEI:ARVIND
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Last week, you might have seen that Arvind Limited (NSE:ARVIND) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.4% to ₹378 in the past week. Arvind reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of ₹18b and statutory earnings per share of ₹1.50, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Arvind

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NSEI:ARVIND Earnings and Revenue Growth August 2nd 2024

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Arvind's six analysts is for revenues of ₹85.4b in 2025. This would reflect a meaningful 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 45% to ₹17.24. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₹88.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹18.60 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the ₹463 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Arvind analyst has a price target of ₹484 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹430. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Arvind is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Arvind's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.9% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Arvind is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. The consensus price target held steady at ₹463, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Arvind. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Arvind going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Arvind you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.