Zodiac Energy (NSE:ZODIAC) Strong Profits May Be Masking Some Underlying Issues

Zodiac Energy Limited's (NSE:ZODIAC) healthy profit numbers didn't contain any surprises for investors. We think this is due to investors looking beyond the statutory profits and being concerned with what they see.

Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.

A Closer Look At Zodiac Energy's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

For the year to September 2025, Zodiac Energy had an accrual ratio of 0.39. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of ₹549m despite its profit of ₹205.2m, mentioned above. We also note that Zodiac Energy's free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of ₹549m.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Zodiac Energy.

Our Take On Zodiac Energy's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, we think Zodiac Energy's earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. As a result, we think it may well be the case that Zodiac Energy's underlying earnings power is lower than its statutory profit. But the good news is that its EPS growth over the last three years has been very impressive. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Our analysis shows 3 warning signs for Zodiac Energy (2 make us uncomfortable!) and we strongly recommend you look at these bad boys before investing.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Zodiac Energy's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.