Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Marshall Machines Limited (NSE:MARSHALL) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
View our latest analysis for Marshall Machines
What Is Marshall Machines's Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Marshall Machines had ₹401.8m in debt in March 2022; about the same as the year before. Net debt is about the same, since the it doesn't have much cash.
A Look At Marshall Machines' Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Marshall Machines had liabilities of ₹737.6m due within 12 months and liabilities of ₹156.0m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had ₹2.72m in cash and ₹180.0m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total ₹710.8m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of ₹529.6m, we think shareholders really should watch Marshall Machines's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Marshall Machines will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Over 12 months, Marshall Machines made a loss at the EBIT level, and saw its revenue drop to ₹530m, which is a fall of 28%. To be frank that doesn't bode well.
Caveat Emptor
While Marshall Machines's falling revenue is about as heartwarming as a wet blanket, arguably its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss is even less appealing. Indeed, it lost ₹18m at the EBIT level. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above make us nervous about the company. We'd want to see some strong near-term improvements before getting too interested in the stock. It's fair to say the loss of ₹49m didn't encourage us either; we'd like to see a profit. In the meantime, we consider the stock to be risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Marshall Machines that you should be aware of.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NSEI:MARSHALL
Marshall Machines
Designs, develops, manufactures, and markets machine tool equipment in India.
Moderate with mediocre balance sheet.