Jupiter Wagons Limited Just Missed Revenue By 8.9%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week, you might have seen that Jupiter Wagons Limited (NSE:JWL) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.8% to ₹304 in the past week. Revenues came in 8.9% below expectations, at ₹7.9b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of ₹9.08 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Jupiter Wagons after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Jupiter Wagons' three analysts is for revenues of ₹37.3b in 2026. This reflects a solid 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 20% to ₹7.90. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹42.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹9.80 in 2026. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a real cut to revenue estimates and a real cut to earnings per share numbers as well.

See our latest analysis for Jupiter Wagons

The consensus price target fell 9.6% to ₹387, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Jupiter Wagons analyst has a price target of ₹430 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹362. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Jupiter Wagons is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Jupiter Wagons' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 25% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 41% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Jupiter Wagons' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Jupiter Wagons. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Jupiter Wagons' future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Jupiter Wagons going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Jupiter Wagons has 2 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.