An Intrinsic Calculation For Dilip Buildcon Limited (NSE:DBL) Suggests It's 38% Undervalued

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Dilip Buildcon fair value estimate is ₹493
• Current share price of ₹306 suggests Dilip Buildcon is potentially 38% undervalued
• Our fair value estimate is 39% higher than Dilip Buildcon's analyst price target of ₹354

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Dilip Buildcon Limited (NSE:DBL) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Dilip Buildcon

Is Dilip Buildcon Fairly Valued?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (₹, Millions)	₹8.92b	₹10.1b	₹11.1b	₹12.1b	₹13.1b	₹14.1b	₹15.2b	₹16.3b	₹17.5b	₹18.7b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Est @ 9.96%	Est @ 9.00%	Est @ 8.33%	Est @ 7.86%	Est @ 7.53%	Est @ 7.30%	Est @ 7.14%	Est @ 7.02%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 21%	₹7.4k	₹6.9k	₹6.3k	₹5.7k	₹5.1k	₹4.6k	₹4.1k	₹3.6k	₹3.2k	₹2.9k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹50b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (6.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 21%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹19b× (1 + 6.8%) ÷ (21%– 6.8%) = ₹144b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₹144b÷ ( 1 + 21%)¹⁰= ₹22b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is ₹72b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ₹306, the company appears quite undervalued at a 38% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Dilip Buildcon as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 21%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.661. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Dilip Buildcon

Looking Ahead:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Dilip Buildcon, we've put together three important elements you should assess:

1. Risks: Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Dilip Buildcon (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.
2. Future Earnings: How does DBL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NSEI every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.