Revenue Miss: Minda Corporation Limited Fell 5.1% Short Of Analyst Revenue Estimates And Analysts Have Been Revising Their Models

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Minda Corporation Limited (NSE:MINDACORP), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues came in 5.1% below expectations, at ₹12b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of ₹11.89 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Minda

After the latest results, the six analysts covering Minda are now predicting revenues of ₹53.6b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 19% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 18% to ₹13.96. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹53.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹13.80 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of ₹401, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Minda at ₹550 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹271. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Minda's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 11% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 12% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Minda to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₹401, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Minda going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Minda that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.