Nayax Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Nayax Ltd. (TLV:NYAX), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$104m revenue coming in 4.8% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.092 missed the mark badly, arriving some 29% below what was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Nayax's six analysts is for revenues of US$495.9m in 2026. This reflects a huge 34% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 34% to US$0.87. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$508.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.89 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Nayax

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of ₪153, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Nayax's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Nayax analyst has a price target of ₪180 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₪125. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Nayax'shistorical trends, as the 26% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 30% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 18% per year. So although Nayax is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Nayax. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Nayax going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Nayax Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.