ICL Group Ltd Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Investors in ICL Group Ltd (TLV:ICL) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.5% to close at ₪15.45 following the release of its second-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$1.8b were in line with what the analysts predicted, ICL Group surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.09 per share, a notable 18% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for ICL Group

Following last week's earnings report, ICL Group's six analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$7.03b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$7.06b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.36 in 2024. So we can see that while the consensus made no real change to its revenue estimates, it also no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that revenues are what the market is focusing on after the latest results.

We'd also point out that thatthe analysts have made no major changes to their price target of ₪18.84. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic ICL Group analyst has a price target of ₪19.57 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₪17.96. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that ICL Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than ICL Group.

The Bottom Line

The clear take away from these updates is that the analysts made no change to their revenue estimates for next year, with the business apparently performing in line with their models. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

At least one of ICL Group's six analysts has provided estimates out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that ICL Group is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.