PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk

IDX:PGAS Stock Report

Market Cap: Rp35.4t

Perusahaan Gas Negara Valuation

Is PGAS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PGAS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PGAS (IDR1500) is trading below our estimate of fair value (IDR3599.66)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PGAS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PGAS?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

PGAS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA3.4x
PEG Ratio-25.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PGAS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PGAS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.6x
PGEO Pertamina Geothermal Energy
18.4x0.9%Rp46.5t
CGAS Citra Nusantara Gemilang
18.5xn/aRp200.2b
POWR Cikarang Listrindo
13.6x15.6%Rp11.1t
PROMIGAS Promigas E.S.P
7.8xn/aCol$8.7t
PGAS Perusahaan Gas Negara
7.4x-0.3%Rp35.4t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PGAS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the peer average (14.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PGAS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Gas Utilities Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a6.7%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a6.7%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PGAS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the Asian Gas Utilities industry average (13.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PGAS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PGAS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7.2x
Fair PE Ratio11.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PGAS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PGAS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentRp1,500.00
Rp1,531.26
+2.1%
12.0%Rp1,896.54Rp1,233.52n/a13
Sep ’25Rp1,540.00
Rp1,541.95
+0.1%
11.6%Rp1,900.97Rp1,236.40n/a13
Aug ’25Rp1,590.00
Rp1,592.33
+0.1%
10.0%Rp1,834.56Rp1,331.27n/a13
Jul ’25Rp1,545.00
Rp1,589.07
+2.9%
10.0%Rp1,852.52Rp1,344.31n/a14
Jun ’25Rp1,580.00
Rp1,491.89
-5.6%
10.5%Rp1,807.10Rp1,247.38n/a14
May ’25Rp1,470.00
Rp1,429.74
-2.7%
18.3%Rp1,902.42Rp813.00n/a15
Apr ’25Rp1,355.00
Rp1,345.73
-0.7%
19.8%Rp1,848.02Rp789.75n/a15
Mar ’25Rp1,105.00
Rp1,302.87
+17.9%
23.1%Rp1,843.40Rp781.10n/a15
Feb ’25Rp1,160.00
Rp1,327.57
+14.4%
21.7%Rp1,862.04Rp946.80n/a15
Jan ’25Rp1,130.00
Rp1,428.59
+26.4%
26.4%Rp2,309.40Rp923.76n/a14
Dec ’24Rp1,120.00
Rp1,527.66
+36.4%
25.5%Rp2,333.25Rp933.30n/a14
Nov ’24Rp1,220.00
Rp1,651.04
+35.3%
20.5%Rp2,378.10Rp1,109.78n/a14
Oct ’24Rp1,375.00
Rp1,661.46
+20.8%
16.4%Rp2,304.60Rp1,167.66Rp1,450.0014
Sep ’24Rp1,355.00
Rp1,678.39
+23.9%
17.8%Rp2,287.05Rp1,158.77Rp1,540.0013
Aug ’24Rp1,385.00
Rp1,684.12
+21.6%
18.3%Rp2,252.10Rp1,141.06Rp1,590.0012
Jul ’24Rp1,305.00
Rp1,721.78
+31.9%
18.3%Rp2,250.30Rp1,050.14Rp1,545.0013
Jun ’24Rp1,430.00
Rp1,744.70
+22.0%
17.9%Rp2,249.10Rp1,049.58Rp1,580.0014
May ’24Rp1,430.00
Rp1,731.76
+21.1%
16.3%Rp2,141.24Rp1,026.62Rp1,470.0013
Apr ’24Rp1,380.00
Rp1,875.95
+35.9%
16.8%Rp2,202.06Rp1,048.60Rp1,355.0013
Mar ’24Rp1,550.00
Rp2,005.32
+29.4%
11.7%Rp2,386.56Rp1,520.10Rp1,105.0013
Feb ’24Rp1,570.00
Rp2,022.35
+28.8%
11.9%Rp2,362.07Rp1,504.50Rp1,160.0012
Jan ’24Rp1,760.00
Rp2,122.78
+20.6%
11.1%Rp2,446.06Rp1,558.00Rp1,130.0012
Dec ’23Rp1,900.00
Rp2,126.90
+11.9%
15.7%Rp2,579.39Rp1,368.34Rp1,120.0013
Nov ’23Rp1,945.00
Rp2,014.16
+3.6%
16.8%Rp2,559.06Rp1,357.55Rp1,220.0013
Oct ’23Rp1,755.00
Rp1,903.67
+8.5%
15.3%Rp2,258.69Rp1,318.83Rp1,375.0012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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