PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk

IDX:EXCL Stock Report

Market Cap: Rp50.4t

XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 101.4% and 4.2% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 109.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 9.6% in 3 years.

Key information

101.4%

Earnings growth rate

109.83%

EPS growth rate

Wireless Telecom earnings growth-6.4%
Revenue growth rate4.2%
Future return on equity9.61%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated20 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 18

EXCL: Higher Margin Outlook Will Support More Optimistic Future Prospects

Analysts have revised their fair value estimate for XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera to IDR 3,272.50 from IDR 3,163.75, reflecting updated assumptions that combine a lower future P/E multiple with a higher profit margin outlook while keeping the discount rate unchanged. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Adjusted to IDR 3,272.50 from IDR 3,163.75, reflecting a modest uplift in the central valuation estimate.
Narrative Update • Apr 29

EXCL: Steady Assumptions Will Shape Balanced View On Future Prospects

Analysts now set a slightly higher fair value estimate for XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera, lifting the price target from IDR 3,149.75 to IDR 3,163.75. This is supported by relatively unchanged assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E expectations.
Narrative Update • Apr 15

EXCL: Steady Assumptions Will Guide Balanced View On Prospects

Analysts keep the fair value estimate for XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera steady at IDR 3,149.75 per share, citing essentially unchanged assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E relative to prior research. Valuation Changes Fair Value: IDR 3,149.75 per share, unchanged from the prior estimate.
Narrative Update • Apr 01

EXCL: Higher Growth Outlook And Firm P/E Support Future Upside Potential

Analysts have kept their IDR 4,500 price target for XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera unchanged, explaining the steady view as a balance between higher assumed revenue growth of 9.02% and a lower profit margin estimate of 13.57%, which now feeds into an 18.91x future P/E assumption. Valuation Changes Fair Value: IDR 4,500 remains unchanged, indicating no revision to the central price estimate.
Narrative Update • Mar 17

EXCL: Fair Value And Margin Outlook Will Shape Balanced 2025 View

Analysts now set their fair value estimate for XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera at IDR 3,149.75 per share, up from IDR 3,134.75, reflecting updated assumptions around profit margin and future P/E while keeping the discount rate broadly unchanged. Valuation Changes Fair Value: IDR 3,134.75 per share to IDR 3,149.75 per share, a small upward adjustment in the valuation range.
Narrative Update • Mar 03

EXCL: Higher Fair Value And P/E Will Shape Balanced 2025 Outlook

Analysts now set their price target for XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera at IDR 3,134.75, compared with the prior fair value estimate of IDR 2,884.76. This reflects updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and a higher future P/E framework.
Narrative Update • Feb 17

EXCL: Higher Margin Outlook Will Support Future Upside Potential

Analysts have maintained their IDR 4,500 price target for XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera. They cite slightly lower assumed revenue growth, a higher projected profit margin, a modestly reduced discount rate, and a lower future P/E as key offsetting factors supporting this unchanged view.
Narrative Update • Feb 02

EXCL: Stronger 2025 Guidance And Firmer Margins Will Support Future Upside

Analysts keep their fair value estimate for XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera steady at Rp4,500, highlighting slightly higher assumed revenue growth of about 10.4%, a modestly stronger profit margin near 23.5%, and a marginally lower future P/E of around 10.7x as the key drivers behind the updated price target narrative. What's in the News Company issues earnings guidance for 2025, with revenue expected to grow broadly in line with the wider market (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Jan 19

EXCL: Higher 2025 Revenue Guidance And Richer P/E Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera from Rp4,479.92 to Rp4,500, reflecting updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E levels. What's in the News XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera issued earnings guidance for 2025, giving investors a clearer view of management expectations for the year (company guidance).
Narrative Update • Jan 05

EXCL: Higher Margin Outlook And Extra Dividend Will Support Future Upside

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera slightly higher to Rp4,479.92 from Rp4,470.25, citing updated assumptions that combine more moderate revenue growth expectations with higher projected profit margins and a slightly lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News Management issued earnings guidance for 2025, indicating revenue is expected to move broadly in line with the wider market, with reported growth guided in a 20% to 25% year on year range.
Narrative Update • Dec 14

EXCL: Lower Risk Profile And Cable Project Will Drive Stronger Margins

Analysts have raised their price target for XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera from Rp4,120 to Rp4,470, citing a lower perceived risk profile, improved long term profit margins, and a more conservative outlook on revenue growth and valuation multiples. What's in the News Issued 2025 earnings guidance with reported revenue expected to grow 20% to 25% year on year, broadly in line with the market (corporate guidance).
Narrative Update • Nov 30

EXCL: Cable Network Expansion And Dividend Plans Will Drive Measured 2025 Prospects

Analysts have slightly raised their price target for XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera from Rp2,849.09 to Rp2,884.76, citing adjustments in profit margin outlook and revenue growth expectations. What's in the News Issued new corporate guidance projecting revenue growth of 20% to 25% year-on-year for 2025, broadly in line with the market forecast (Corporate Guidance: New or Confirmed).
Narrative Update • Nov 16

EXCL: Cable Expansion And Profit Margin Improvements Will Support Balanced 2025 Outlook

Analysts have raised their price target for XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera from Rp2,800 to Rp2,849. This change reflects an improved profit margin outlook and a lower discount rate, despite slightly softer revenue growth estimates.
Narrative Update • Nov 01

EXCL: Subsea Connectivity Expansion And Shareholder Meeting Will Shape Indonesia’s Digital Future

Analysts have slightly raised their price target for XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera to Rp2,799.55 from Rp2,798.18, citing adjustments in discount rates and updated financial expectations. What's in the News Announcement of a Special/Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting scheduled for November 21, 2025, at XLSMART Tower, Jakarta (Key Developments) XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera participates in a major international submarine cable project, the Candle Submarine Cable System, connecting Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore.
Narrative Update • Oct 17

Integrated Networks And Digital Investments Will Expand Indonesia's Connectivity

Analysts have maintained their price target for XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera at Rp2,798, citing very minor adjustments to the discount rate and operating forecasts. These changes do not materially affect the company’s fair value outlook.
Narrative Update • Oct 03

Integrated Networks And Digital Investments Will Expand Indonesia's Connectivity

Analysts have raised their price target for XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera from Rp2,728 to Rp2,798. They cited updated financial projections and modest adjustments to key valuation factors as reasons for the change.
Narrative Update • Aug 29

Integrated Networks And Digital Investments Will Expand Indonesia's Connectivity

Despite a slight downgrade in consensus revenue growth forecasts, a significant expansion in net profit margin has driven a modest increase in the fair value target for XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera from IDR2,608 to IDR2,665. What's in the News Scheduled a Special/Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting at company headquarters.
User avatar
New Narrative • Feb 18

Merger With Smartfren And Integration Of First Media Will Expand Subscriber Base And Strengthen ISP Position In Indonesia

Strategic mergers and acquisitions strengthen XL Axiata's market position and align with its convergence strategy to boost revenue from expanded broadband and subscriber base.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

IDX:EXCL - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (IDR Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202851,147,2183,885,7753,961,00020,292,75011
12/31/202749,111,7723,023,6762,479,50619,759,19119
12/31/202646,887,173-1,828,7384,292,85117,677,80018
3/31/202645,664,124-5,528,11310,164,67820,025,876N/A
12/31/202542,445,960-4,426,6188,197,85817,501,453N/A
9/30/202539,577,649-2,100,7589,052,51217,735,938N/A
6/30/202536,434,894-429,4257,944,88516,408,874N/A
3/31/202534,554,4891,662,5128,433,37217,130,344N/A
12/31/202434,391,5971,819,0198,336,73317,833,645N/A
9/30/202433,816,2581,573,6707,350,98517,207,322N/A
6/30/202433,609,7211,631,2087,423,09517,577,590N/A
3/31/202433,213,6121,597,1476,180,73816,763,381N/A
12/31/202332,322,6511,256,9655,670,90516,095,538N/A
9/30/202331,414,4391,128,2305,473,16115,949,403N/A
6/30/202330,831,6921,145,2105,325,98714,896,173N/A
3/31/202329,947,2591,171,2385,992,82114,679,022N/A
12/31/202229,141,9941,102,3665,273,42414,104,495N/A
9/30/202228,549,2161,252,6085,472,88913,495,834N/A
6/30/202227,854,6801,186,7596,052,52613,729,733N/A
3/31/202227,248,7461,106,3865,079,82912,991,966N/A
12/31/202126,754,0501,287,8074,670,66211,963,257N/A
9/30/202126,153,137-687,0093,965,22511,380,601N/A
6/30/202125,901,134-655,9633,632,89010,967,740N/A
3/31/202125,759,307-827,5984,141,02811,830,720N/A
12/31/202026,009,095371,5986,183,25913,949,485N/A
9/30/202026,068,2572,289,1747,699,84416,329,636N/A
6/30/202025,957,9592,173,7015,687,95414,639,920N/A
3/31/202025,662,5552,175,0955,495,14314,042,026N/A
12/31/201925,132,628712,579N/A12,357,027N/A
9/30/201924,767,122-2,653,669N/A13,249,752N/A
6/30/201924,149,599-2,932,752N/A12,007,476N/A
3/31/201923,404,671-3,255,130N/A10,087,554N/A
12/31/201822,938,812-3,296,890N/A9,357,786N/A
9/30/201822,864,589-7,629N/A6,723,484N/A
6/30/201822,988,151150,388N/A8,499,345N/A
3/31/201823,111,249344,176N/A9,522,824N/A
12/31/201722,875,662375,244N/A9,612,170N/A
9/30/201722,161,628453,869N/A8,069,528N/A
6/30/201721,421,337293,891N/A8,209,028N/A
3/31/201720,990,964252,754N/A7,802,483N/A
12/31/201621,341,425375,516N/A7,311,992N/A
9/30/201622,037,173640,923N/A7,907,427N/A
6/30/201622,638,4981,050,289N/A8,443,533N/A
3/31/201623,011,372901,999N/A7,935,632N/A
12/31/201522,876,182-25,338N/A7,506,407N/A
9/30/201522,841,351-472,881N/A8,740,104N/A
6/30/201523,004,382-1,209,787N/A7,109,162N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: EXCL is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (6.7%).

Earnings vs Market: EXCL is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: EXCL is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: EXCL's revenue (4.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the ID market (12.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: EXCL's revenue (4.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: EXCL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.6%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/26 17:16
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/26 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk is covered by 34 analysts. 19 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Anand RamachandranBarclays
Sukriti BansalBofA Global Research
Bob SetiadiCGS International