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EXCL: Lower Risk Profile And Cable Project Will Drive Stronger Margins

Digitalization And 5G Rollout Will Energize Indonesia's Telecom Sector

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EXCL
AnalystHighTarget
Not Invested
Published 24 Jul 2025

Update shared on 14 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 8.49%
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AnalystHighTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
63.4%
7D
12.4%

Analysts have raised their price target for XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera from Rp4,120 to Rp4,470, citing a lower perceived risk profile, improved long term profit margins, and a more conservative outlook on revenue growth and valuation multiples.

What's in the News

  • Issued 2025 earnings guidance with reported revenue expected to grow 20% to 25% year on year, broadly in line with the market (corporate guidance).
  • Called a Special or Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for November 21, 2025 in Jakarta to seek approval to use a portion of retained earnings for an additional final cash dividend (shareholder meeting notice).
  • Named as a key partner in the Candle Submarine Cable System, an approximately 8,000 km international cable connecting Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, scheduled to begin operations in 2028 (strategic alliance announcement).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair value estimate raised moderately from IDR 4,120 to IDR 4,470 per share, reflecting higher long term profit expectations.
  • Discount rate reduced slightly from 13.49 percent to 12.30 percent, indicating a lower perceived risk profile for future cash flows.
  • Revenue growth assumption reduced from about 14.4 percent to about 11.4 percent annually, implying a more conservative top line outlook.
  • Net profit margin increased from roughly 17.6 percent to roughly 22.3 percent, signaling expectations of improved operational efficiency and profitability.
  • Future P/E multiple lowered from about 13.1x to about 10.9x, suggesting a more restrained valuation despite the higher fair value estimate.

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