PT XL Axiata Tbk

IDX:EXCL Stock Report

Market Cap: Rp29.8t

XL Axiata Valuation

Is EXCL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of EXCL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: EXCL (IDR2280) is trading below our estimate of fair value (IDR8523)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EXCL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for EXCL?

Key metric: As EXCL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for EXCL. This is calculated by dividing EXCL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is EXCL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18.8x
EarningsRp1.59t
Market CapRp29.80t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does EXCL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for EXCL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.8x
ISAT Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison
13.7x13.0%Rp76.4t
TOWR Sarana Menara Nusantara
9.3x6.9%Rp30.5t
TBIG Tower Bersama Infrastructure
26.6x8.8%Rp42.7t
MTEL Dayamitra Telekomunikasi
25.6x7.9%Rp54.1t
EXCL XL Axiata
18.8x19.2%Rp29.8t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: EXCL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.8x) compared to the peer average (18.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does EXCL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Wireless Telecom Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
EXCL 18.8xIndustry Avg. 18.8xNo. of Companies7PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: EXCL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.8x) compared to the Asian Wireless Telecom industry average (18.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is EXCL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

EXCL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.8x
Fair PE Ratio18.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: EXCL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst EXCL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentRp2,280.00
Rp3,029.50
+32.9%
22.0%Rp5,000.00Rp2,300.00n/a20
Dec ’25Rp2,220.00
Rp3,046.00
+37.2%
21.6%Rp5,000.00Rp2,300.00n/a20
Nov ’25Rp2,250.00
Rp3,043.50
+35.3%
21.3%Rp5,000.00Rp2,300.00n/a20
Oct ’25Rp2,260.00
Rp3,041.43
+34.6%
20.7%Rp5,000.00Rp2,300.00n/a21
Sep ’25Rp2,230.00
Rp2,974.09
+33.4%
21.9%Rp5,000.00Rp2,150.00n/a22
Aug ’25Rp2,170.00
Rp2,955.91
+36.2%
22.1%Rp5,000.00Rp2,150.00n/a22
Jul ’25Rp2,180.00
Rp2,933.91
+34.6%
21.9%Rp5,000.00Rp2,150.00n/a23
Jun ’25Rp2,310.00
Rp2,968.26
+28.5%
21.4%Rp5,000.00Rp2,150.00n/a23
May ’25Rp2,470.00
Rp2,928.80
+18.6%
21.6%Rp5,000.00Rp2,150.00n/a25
Apr ’25Rp2,270.00
Rp2,893.60
+27.5%
22.7%Rp5,000.00Rp2,000.00n/a25
Mar ’25Rp2,560.00
Rp2,882.08
+12.6%
21.7%Rp5,000.00Rp2,000.00n/a24
Feb ’25Rp2,300.00
Rp2,900.87
+26.1%
22.4%Rp5,000.00Rp2,000.00n/a23
Jan ’25Rp2,000.00
Rp2,944.35
+47.2%
23.0%Rp5,000.00Rp2,000.00n/a23
Dec ’24Rp2,080.00
Rp2,926.67
+40.7%
22.8%Rp5,000.00Rp2,000.00Rp2,220.0024
Nov ’24Rp2,060.00
Rp2,943.04
+42.9%
23.3%Rp5,000.00Rp2,000.00Rp2,250.0023
Oct ’24Rp2,380.00
Rp2,973.48
+24.9%
22.9%Rp5,000.00Rp2,000.00Rp2,260.0023
Sep ’24Rp2,440.00
Rp2,953.27
+21.0%
21.8%Rp5,000.00Rp2,000.00Rp2,230.0026
Aug ’24Rp2,280.00
Rp2,904.63
+27.4%
22.3%Rp5,000.00Rp2,000.00Rp2,170.0027
Jul ’24Rp1,955.00
Rp2,929.46
+49.8%
22.3%Rp5,000.00Rp2,000.00Rp2,180.0028
Jun ’24Rp1,985.00
Rp2,974.82
+49.9%
21.2%Rp5,000.00Rp2,000.00Rp2,310.0028
May ’24Rp1,750.00
Rp3,062.04
+75.0%
19.3%Rp5,000.00Rp2,000.00Rp2,470.0027
Apr ’24Rp1,980.00
Rp3,092.78
+56.2%
19.5%Rp5,000.00Rp2,000.00Rp2,270.0027
Mar ’24Rp2,060.00
Rp3,244.42
+57.5%
17.2%Rp5,000.00Rp2,400.00Rp2,560.0026
Feb ’24Rp2,280.00
Rp3,357.71
+47.3%
18.3%Rp5,000.00Rp2,300.00Rp2,300.0024
Jan ’24Rp2,140.00
Rp3,412.95
+59.5%
17.8%Rp5,000.00Rp2,300.00Rp2,000.0022
Dec ’23Rp2,250.00
Rp3,549.55
+57.8%
17.5%Rp5,000.00Rp2,300.00Rp2,080.0022

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 02:15
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

PT XL Axiata Tbk is covered by 48 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Anand RamachandranBarclays
Choong Chen FoongBNP Paribas Securities (Asia)
Sukriti BansalBofA Global Research