PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk

IDX:SMGR Stock Report

Market Cap: Rp24.8t

Semen Indonesia (Persero) Valuation

Is SMGR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SMGR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SMGR (IDR3680) is trading below our estimate of fair value (IDR5149.96)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SMGR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SMGR?

Key metric: As SMGR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SMGR. This is calculated by dividing SMGR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SMGR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio21.1x
EarningsRp1.18t
Market CapRp24.85t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SMGR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SMGR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.8x
INTP Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa
13.5x5.9%Rp23.6t
SMCB Solusi Bangun Indonesia
8.4xn/aRp6.7t
SMBR Semen Baturaja (Persero)
20.6xn/aRp2.1t
BLES Superior Prima Sukses
12.8xn/aRp2.2t
SMGR Semen Indonesia (Persero)
21.1x31.4%Rp24.8t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SMGR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.1x) compared to the peer average (13.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SMGR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Basic Materials Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SMGR 21.1xIndustry Avg. 17.2xNo. of Companies41PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SMGR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.1x) compared to the Asian Basic Materials industry average (17.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SMGR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SMGR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio21.1x
Fair PE Ratio24.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SMGR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SMGR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentRp3,680.00
Rp4,548.67
+23.6%
28.3%Rp8,600.00Rp3,000.00n/a15
Nov ’25Rp3,810.00
Rp4,907.14
+28.8%
23.3%Rp8,600.00Rp3,750.00n/a14
Oct ’25Rp3,880.00
Rp5,012.50
+29.2%
24.6%Rp8,600.00Rp3,750.00n/a16
Sep ’25Rp4,010.00
Rp5,012.50
+25.0%
24.6%Rp8,600.00Rp3,750.00n/a16
Aug ’25Rp3,850.00
Rp5,403.33
+40.3%
24.4%Rp8,600.00Rp3,750.00n/a15
Jul ’25Rp3,920.00
Rp5,734.38
+46.3%
24.6%Rp8,600.00Rp3,750.00n/a16
Jun ’25Rp3,490.00
Rp6,193.75
+77.5%
24.3%Rp8,600.00Rp3,750.00n/a16
May ’25Rp4,670.00
Rp7,464.06
+59.8%
12.9%Rp10,000.00Rp5,700.00n/a16
Apr ’25Rp5,875.00
Rp7,501.56
+27.7%
12.0%Rp10,000.00Rp6,300.00n/a16
Mar ’25Rp6,125.00
Rp8,105.00
+32.3%
11.8%Rp10,000.00Rp6,300.00n/a15
Feb ’25Rp6,325.00
Rp8,031.67
+27.0%
11.7%Rp10,000.00Rp6,300.00n/a15
Jan ’25Rp6,400.00
Rp8,112.81
+26.8%
11.2%Rp10,000.00Rp6,300.00n/a16
Dec ’24Rp6,550.00
Rp8,112.81
+23.9%
11.2%Rp10,000.00Rp6,300.00n/a16
Nov ’24Rp6,050.00
Rp8,220.00
+35.9%
12.0%Rp10,000.00Rp6,300.00Rp3,810.0014
Oct ’24Rp6,425.00
Rp8,580.00
+33.5%
10.8%Rp10,000.00Rp6,300.00Rp3,880.0016
Sep ’24Rp6,800.00
Rp8,634.60
+27.0%
11.0%Rp10,000.00Rp6,300.00Rp4,010.0016
Aug ’24Rp6,725.00
Rp8,747.10
+30.1%
11.6%Rp10,250.00Rp6,300.00Rp3,850.0016
Jul ’24Rp6,075.00
Rp8,761.98
+44.2%
11.3%Rp10,250.00Rp6,300.00Rp3,920.0017
Jun ’24Rp5,800.00
Rp8,920.20
+53.8%
11.9%Rp10,640.00Rp6,300.00Rp3,490.0018
May ’24Rp5,950.00
Rp9,448.82
+58.8%
11.6%Rp12,963.94Rp7,800.00Rp4,670.0019
Apr ’24Rp6,300.00
Rp9,430.08
+49.7%
11.4%Rp12,963.94Rp7,800.00Rp5,875.0020
Mar ’24Rp7,250.00
Rp9,797.75
+35.1%
11.0%Rp12,963.94Rp7,800.00Rp6,125.0019
Feb ’24Rp7,325.00
Rp9,750.38
+33.1%
11.4%Rp12,963.94Rp7,800.00Rp6,325.0019
Jan ’24Rp6,575.00
Rp9,734.82
+48.1%
11.3%Rp12,963.94Rp7,180.03Rp6,400.0021
Dec ’23Rp7,700.00
Rp9,877.00
+28.3%
11.0%Rp13,000.00Rp7,200.00Rp6,550.0020
Nov ’23Rp8,025.00
Rp9,977.89
+24.3%
13.0%Rp13,000.00Rp7,200.00Rp6,050.0019

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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