PAM Mineral Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of NICL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

NICL (IDR294) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (IDR1681.81)

Is NICL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NICL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NICL (IDR294) is trading below our estimate of fair value (IDR1681.81)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NICL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NICL?

Key metric: As NICL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NICL. This is calculated by dividing NICL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NICL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	22.6x
Earnings	Rp138.56b
Market Cap	Rp3.13t

NICL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	15.1x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NICL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NICL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	38.7x
DEWA Darma Henwa	69.5x	n/a	Rp2.6t
NICE Adhi Kartiko Pratama	46.6x	n/a	Rp2.4t
IFSH Ifishdeco	10.2x	n/a	Rp1.5t
HILL Hillcon	28.6x	25.8%	Rp6.2t
NICL PAM Mineral	22.6x	n/a	Rp3.1t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NICL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.6x) compared to the peer average (38.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NICL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the ID Metals and Mining Industry?

3 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
GGRP Gunung Raja Paksi	2.8x	n/a	US$177.02m
ISSP Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia	4.1x	n/a	US$127.30m
DKFT Central Omega Resources	4.3x	n/a	US$77.81m

No more companies available in this PE range

3 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NICL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.6x) compared to the ID Metals and Mining industry average (17.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NICL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NICL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	22.6x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate NICL's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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