Cisarua Mountain Dairy Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of CMRY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

CMRY (IDR5550) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (IDR3742.08)

Is CMRY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CMRY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CMRY (IDR5550) is trading above our estimate of fair value (IDR3742.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CMRY is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CMRY?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for CMRY. This is calculated by dividing CMRY's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is CMRY's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	Rp44.04t

CMRY key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	4.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	21.9x
PEG Ratio	2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CMRY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CMRY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12.6x
MYOR Mayora Indah	17.6x	12.6%	Rp55.9t
INDF Indofood Sukses Makmur	6.5x	9.8%	Rp64.1t
ULTJ Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading	16.6x	17.8%	Rp18.5t
JPFA Japfa Comfeed Indonesia	9.7x	10.8%	Rp20.3t
CMRY Cisarua Mountain Dairy	30.8x	15.1%	Rp44.0t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CMRY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.8x) compared to the peer average (12.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CMRY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the ID Food Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	17.3%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	17.3%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CMRY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.8x) compared to the ID Food industry average (17x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CMRY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CMRY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	30.8x
Fair PE Ratio	14.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CMRY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (30.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CMRY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	Rp5,550.00	Rp6,109.09 +10.1%	6.5%	Rp6,800.00	Rp5,600.00	n/a	11
Oct ’25	Rp5,525.00	Rp6,040.91 +9.3%	7.0%	Rp6,800.00	Rp5,600.00	n/a	11
Sep ’25	Rp4,940.00	Rp5,986.36 +21.2%	7.1%	Rp6,800.00	Rp5,600.00	n/a	11
Aug ’25	Rp5,300.00	Rp5,718.75 +7.9%	8.4%	Rp6,700.00	Rp4,800.00	n/a	8
Jul ’25	Rp4,960.00	Rp5,480.00 +10.5%	7.8%	Rp6,200.00	Rp4,800.00	n/a	10
Jun ’25	Rp4,950.00	Rp5,480.00 +10.7%	7.8%	Rp6,200.00	Rp4,800.00	n/a	10
May ’25	Rp4,980.00	Rp5,355.56 +7.5%	7.1%	Rp6,100.00	Rp4,800.00	n/a	9
Apr ’25	Rp4,950.00	Rp5,050.00 +2.0%	6.0%	Rp5,400.00	Rp4,300.00	n/a	9
Mar ’25	Rp4,230.00	Rp4,992.22 +18.0%	6.5%	Rp5,400.00	Rp4,300.00	n/a	9
Feb ’25	Rp4,060.00	Rp4,997.50 +23.1%	7.1%	Rp5,450.00	Rp4,300.00	n/a	8
Jan ’25	Rp4,010.00	Rp5,072.50 +26.5%	8.0%	Rp5,600.00	Rp4,300.00	n/a	8
Dec ’24	Rp3,590.00	Rp5,182.86 +44.4%	5.8%	Rp5,600.00	Rp4,730.00	n/a	7
Nov ’24	Rp3,750.00	Rp5,211.43 +39.0%	5.8%	Rp5,600.00	Rp4,730.00	Rp5,550.00	7
Oct ’24	Rp3,970.00	Rp5,358.33 +35.0%	5.4%	Rp5,700.00	Rp4,800.00	Rp5,525.00	6
Sep ’24	Rp4,080.00	Rp5,270.00 +29.2%	6.9%	Rp5,700.00	Rp4,600.00	Rp4,940.00	5
Aug ’24	Rp4,100.00	Rp5,270.00 +28.5%	6.9%	Rp5,700.00	Rp4,600.00	Rp5,300.00	5
Jul ’24	Rp4,190.00	Rp5,258.33 +25.5%	6.9%	Rp5,700.00	Rp4,600.00	Rp4,960.00	6
Jun ’24	Rp4,330.00	Rp5,258.33 +21.4%	6.9%	Rp5,700.00	Rp4,600.00	Rp4,950.00	6
May ’24	Rp4,750.00	Rp5,191.67 +9.3%	9.5%	Rp5,700.00	Rp4,200.00	Rp4,980.00	6
Apr ’24	Rp4,620.00	Rp5,140.00 +11.3%	10.2%	Rp5,700.00	Rp4,200.00	Rp4,950.00	5
Mar ’24	Rp4,360.00	Rp5,225.00 +19.8%	11.4%	Rp5,700.00	Rp4,200.00	Rp4,230.00	4
Jan ’24	Rp4,250.00	Rp5,175.00 +21.8%	10.9%	Rp5,500.00	Rp4,200.00	Rp4,010.00	4
Dec ’23	Rp4,490.00	Rp5,175.00 +15.3%	10.9%	Rp5,500.00	Rp4,200.00	Rp3,590.00	4
Nov ’23	Rp4,850.00	Rp5,000.00 +3.1%	9.9%	Rp5,500.00	Rp4,200.00	Rp3,750.00	4

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.