PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk

IDX:BBTN Stock Report

Market Cap: Rp17.7t

Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Valuation

Is BBTN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BBTN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BBTN (IDR1260) is trading below our estimate of fair value (IDR1870.24)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BBTN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BBTN?

Key metric: As BBTN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BBTN. This is calculated by dividing BBTN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BBTN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio5x
EarningsRp3.53t
Market CapRp17.68t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BBTN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BBTN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average46.6x
BNII Bank Maybank Indonesia
15.7xn/aRp16.6t
BDMN Bank Danamon Indonesia
7.6x9.1%Rp24.8t
BTPN Bank SMBC Indonesia
10.8xn/aRp24.4t
BMAS Bank Maspion Indonesia
152.3xn/aRp10.8t
BBTN Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero)
5x10.9%Rp17.7t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BBTN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5x) compared to the peer average (46.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BBTN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the ID Banks Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
BBTN 5.0xIndustry Avg. 19.7xNo. of Companies9PE01632486480+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BBTN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5x) compared to the ID Banks industry average (19.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BBTN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BBTN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio5x
Fair PE Ratio8.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BBTN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BBTN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentRp1,260.00
Rp1,663.21
+32.0%
14.0%Rp2,100.00Rp1,225.00n/a14
Nov ’25Rp1,415.00
Rp1,663.21
+17.5%
14.0%Rp2,100.00Rp1,225.00n/a14
Oct ’25Rp1,465.00
Rp1,673.93
+14.3%
13.5%Rp2,100.00Rp1,225.00n/a14
Sep ’25Rp1,410.00
Rp1,677.86
+19.0%
13.2%Rp2,000.00Rp1,225.00n/a14
Aug ’25Rp1,340.00
Rp1,678.57
+25.3%
13.1%Rp2,000.00Rp1,225.00n/a14
Jul ’25Rp1,275.00
Rp1,724.13
+35.2%
12.7%Rp2,000.00Rp1,300.00n/a16
Jun ’25Rp1,225.00
Rp1,725.65
+40.9%
12.3%Rp2,000.00Rp1,300.00n/a17
May ’25Rp1,320.00
Rp1,740.94
+31.9%
12.6%Rp2,000.00Rp1,300.00n/a17
Apr ’25Rp1,490.00
Rp1,763.29
+18.3%
13.7%Rp2,130.00Rp1,300.00n/a17
Mar ’25Rp1,440.00
Rp1,765.94
+22.6%
13.9%Rp2,175.00Rp1,300.00n/a17
Feb ’25Rp1,295.00
Rp1,741.00
+34.4%
15.1%Rp2,175.00Rp1,300.00n/a16
Jan ’25Rp1,250.00
Rp1,767.57
+41.4%
14.8%Rp2,175.00Rp1,300.00n/a14
Dec ’24Rp1,270.00
Rp1,792.00
+41.1%
14.2%Rp2,175.00Rp1,300.00n/a13
Nov ’24Rp1,195.00
Rp1,826.40
+52.8%
11.7%Rp2,175.00Rp1,400.00Rp1,415.0015
Oct ’24Rp1,220.00
Rp1,818.50
+49.1%
12.0%Rp2,175.00Rp1,400.00Rp1,465.0016
Sep ’24Rp1,250.00
Rp1,838.49
+47.1%
12.0%Rp2,175.00Rp1,400.00Rp1,410.0017
Aug ’24Rp1,300.00
Rp1,838.49
+41.4%
12.0%Rp2,175.00Rp1,400.00Rp1,340.0017
Jul ’24Rp1,320.00
Rp1,825.66
+38.3%
13.7%Rp2,300.00Rp1,400.00Rp1,275.0016
Jun ’24Rp1,280.00
Rp1,794.34
+40.2%
13.2%Rp2,300.00Rp1,400.00Rp1,225.0017
May ’24Rp1,245.00
Rp1,780.81
+43.0%
14.4%Rp2,300.00Rp1,300.00Rp1,320.0017
Apr ’24Rp1,225.00
Rp1,849.11
+50.9%
17.8%Rp2,500.00Rp1,300.00Rp1,490.0018
Mar ’24Rp1,325.00
Rp1,857.44
+40.2%
17.2%Rp2,500.00Rp1,300.00Rp1,440.0018
Feb ’24Rp1,365.00
Rp1,959.87
+43.6%
18.8%Rp2,500.00Rp1,300.00Rp1,295.0017
Jan ’24Rp1,350.00
Rp2,007.00
+48.7%
18.8%Rp2,500.00Rp1,300.00Rp1,250.0017
Dec ’23Rp1,540.00
Rp2,005.69
+30.2%
18.6%Rp2,500.00Rp1,310.00Rp1,270.0016
Nov ’23Rp1,545.00
Rp2,036.07
+31.8%
20.4%Rp2,700.00Rp1,310.00Rp1,195.0015

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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