Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of FTB Turizam d.d. (ZGSE:LRHC)

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for FTB Turizam d.d is €163 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of €150 suggests FTB Turizam d.d is potentially trading close to its fair value
• Peers of FTB Turizam d.d are currently trading on average at a 218% premium

Does the October share price for FTB Turizam d.d. (ZGSE:LRHC) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for FTB Turizam d.d

The Calculation

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (HRK, Millions)	Kn26.3m	Kn28.3m	Kn29.9m	Kn31.3m	Kn32.5m	Kn33.5m	Kn34.4m	Kn35.2m	Kn36.0m	Kn36.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 9.92%	Est @ 7.47%	Est @ 5.75%	Est @ 4.55%	Est @ 3.71%	Est @ 3.12%	Est @ 2.71%	Est @ 2.42%	Est @ 2.22%	Est @ 2.08%
Present Value (HRK, Millions) Discounted @ 10%	Kn23.9	Kn23.3	Kn22.4	Kn21.2	Kn20.0	Kn18.7	Kn17.4	Kn16.2	Kn15.0	Kn13.9

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = Kn192m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 10%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = Kn37m× (1 + 1.8%) ÷ (10%– 1.8%) = Kn444m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= Kn444m÷ ( 1 + 10%)¹⁰= Kn168m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is Kn360m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of €150, the company appears about fair value at a 8.0% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at FTB Turizam d.d as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.068. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For FTB Turizam d.d, there are three additional elements you should assess:

1. Risks: Take risks, for example - FTB Turizam d.d has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Croatian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.