These 4 Measures Indicate That China Longyuan Power Group (HKG:916) Is Using Debt Extensively

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited (HKG:916) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

Check out our latest analysis for China Longyuan Power Group

How Much Debt Does China Longyuan Power Group Carry?

As you can see below, China Longyuan Power Group had CN¥103.3b of debt at March 2024, down from CN¥120.7b a year prior. On the flip side, it has CN¥4.18b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥99.1b.

A Look At China Longyuan Power Group's Liabilities

We can see from the most recent balance sheet that China Longyuan Power Group had liabilities of CN¥72.3b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥79.5b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥4.18b as well as receivables valued at CN¥40.2b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥107.5b.

This deficit is considerable relative to its very significant market capitalization of CN¥109.4b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on China Longyuan Power Group's use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

China Longyuan Power Group's debt is 4.0 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 4.5 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. We saw China Longyuan Power Group grow its EBIT by 2.1% in the last twelve months. That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine China Longyuan Power Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Considering the last three years, China Longyuan Power Group actually recorded a cash outflow, overall. Debt is far more risky for companies with unreliable free cash flow, so shareholders should be hoping that the past expenditure will produce free cash flow in the future.

Our View

We'd go so far as to say China Longyuan Power Group's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was disappointing. But at least its EBIT growth rate is not so bad. We're quite clear that we consider China Longyuan Power Group to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for China Longyuan Power Group (1 is potentially serious!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com