MTR Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

MTR is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 8.8% and 4% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 9.7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 7.7% in 3 years.

Key information

8.8%

Earnings growth rate

9.7%

EPS growth rate

Transportation earnings growth	5.6%
Revenue growth rate	4.0%
Future return on equity	7.7%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	04 Nov 2024

Recent future growth updates

No updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

SZSC:66 - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (HKD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
12/31/2026	63,153	16,610	-4,338	17,011	9
12/31/2025	60,648	16,220	-6,600	16,592	11
12/31/2024	58,813	14,031	4,854	25,175	11
6/30/2024	58,679	9,650	680	15,506	N/A
3/31/2024	57,831	8,717	-228	13,352	N/A
12/31/2023	56,982	7,784	-1,136	11,197	N/A
9/30/2023	54,668	8,529	-7,316	9,025	N/A
6/30/2023	52,353	9,273	-13,497	6,852	N/A
3/31/2023	50,083	9,550	-13,012	6,805	N/A
12/31/2022	47,812	9,827	-12,527	6,757	N/A
9/30/2022	47,865	10,719	-7,165	6,895	N/A
6/30/2022	47,918	11,611	-1,803	7,032	N/A
3/31/2022	47,560	10,582	-1,486	7,252	N/A
12/31/2021	47,202	9,552	-1,170	7,472	N/A
9/30/2021	45,234	3,875	-1,857	5,879	N/A
6/30/2021	43,266	-1,802	-2,544	4,285	N/A
3/31/2021	42,904	-3,305	-3,947	2,529	N/A
12/31/2020	42,541	-4,809	-5,350	772	N/A
9/30/2020	45,183	642	-3,333	4,237	N/A
6/30/2020	47,824	6,092	-1,317	7,702	N/A
3/31/2020	51,164	9,012	3,352	12,373	N/A
12/31/2019	54,504	11,932	8,020	17,043	N/A
9/30/2019	55,167	13,182	8,870	16,617	N/A
6/30/2019	55,829	14,431	9,720	16,190	N/A
3/31/2019	54,880	15,220	7,079	13,570	N/A
12/31/2018	53,930	16,008	4,438	10,950	N/A
9/30/2018	52,870	16,220	5,829	13,196	N/A
6/30/2018	51,809	16,432	7,219	15,442	N/A
3/31/2018	53,625	16,631	N/A	17,523	N/A
12/31/2017	55,440	16,829	N/A	19,603	N/A
9/30/2017	54,663	14,721	N/A	18,104	N/A
6/30/2017	53,886	12,613	N/A	16,605	N/A
3/31/2017	49,538	11,434	N/A	16,870	N/A
12/31/2016	45,189	10,254	N/A	17,135	N/A
9/30/2016	43,994	10,090	N/A	15,922	N/A
6/30/2016	42,798	9,926	N/A	14,708	N/A
3/31/2016	42,250	11,460	N/A	14,825	N/A
12/31/2015	41,701	12,994	N/A	14,941	N/A
9/30/2015	41,298	14,439	N/A	15,814	N/A
6/30/2015	40,895	15,883	N/A	16,687	N/A
3/31/2015	40,526	15,745	N/A	16,366	N/A
12/31/2014	40,156	15,606	N/A	16,044	N/A
9/30/2014	39,560	15,193	N/A	15,918	N/A
6/30/2014	38,964	14,779	N/A	15,792	N/A
3/31/2014	38,836	13,902	N/A	15,278	N/A
12/31/2013	38,707	13,025	N/A	14,764	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 66's forecast earnings growth (8.8% per year) is above the savings rate (2.3%).

Earnings vs Market: 66's earnings (8.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (11.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 66's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 66's revenue (4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (7.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 66's revenue (4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 66's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (7.7%).

MTR Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: HK$0.97 (vs HK$0.67 in 1H 2023)

MTR Corporation Limited Announces Alternate Director Changes

First half dividend of HK$0.42 announced

First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: HK$0.97 (vs HK$0.67 in 1H 2023)

MTR Corporation Limited Announces an Interim Dividend for the Six Months Ended 30 June 2024, Payable on 17 September 2024

MTR Corporation Limited Announces Change of Alternate Director

MTR Corporation Limited to Report Q2, 2024 Results on Aug 15, 2024

MTR Corporation Limited Declares Final Dividend for the Year Ended 31 December 2023, Payable on 16 July 2024

MTR Corporation Limited Announces Changes in Composition of Board Committees and Advisory Panel

Upcoming dividend of HK$0.89 per share

Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: HK$1.26 (vs HK$1.59 in FY 2022)

Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop

MTR Corporation Limited, Annual General Meeting, May 22, 2024

Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: HK$1.26 (vs HK$1.59 in FY 2022)

MTR Corporation Limited Proposes Final Dividend for the Year Ended 31 December 2023, Payable on 16 July 2024

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

MTR Corporation Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Mar 07, 2024

MTR Corporation Limited Announces Management Changes, Effective 1 October 2023

Upcoming dividend of HK$0.42 per share at 3.9% yield

MTR Corporation Limited Declares Interim Dividend for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2023, Payable on 13 October 2023

New minor risk - Earnings quality

First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: HK$0.67 (vs HK$0.77 in 1H 2022)

MTR Corporation Limited Announces Executive Directorate Changes

MTR Corporation Limited Approves 2022 Final Dividend, Payable on 18 July 2023

MTR Corporation Limited Announces Change of Alternate Director

MTR Corporation Limited Announces Directorate and Board Changes

Upcoming dividend of HK$0.89 per share at 3.4% yield

Full year 2022 earnings released: EPS: HK$1.59 (vs HK$1.55 in FY 2021)

MTR Corporation Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2022 Results on Mar 09, 2023

MTR Corporation Limited Announces Management Changes

Chief Executive Officer recently bought HK$168k worth of stock

Chief Executive Officer recently bought HK$111k worth of stock

MTR Corporation Limited Announces Executive Changes

Upcoming dividend of HK$0.42 per share

MTR Corporation Limited Announces Interim Dividend for the Six Months Ended 30 June 2022, Payable on October 14, 2022

First half 2022 earnings released

MTR Corporation Limited Appoints Liu Chun-San as Alternate Director

MTR Corporation Limited to Report First Half, 2022 Results on Aug 11, 2022

MTR Corporation Limited Announces Board and Committee Changes

MTR Corporation Limited Announces Management Changes

MTR Corporation Limited Approves Final Dividend, Payable on July 19, 2022

MTR Corporation Limited Announces Changes of Directors, and Changes in the Composition of Board Committees and Advisory Panel

Upcoming dividend of HK$1.02 per share

Full year 2021 earnings released: EPS: HK$1.55 (vs HK$0.78 loss in FY 2020)

MTR Corporation Limited Recommends Final Dividend for the Year 2021, Payable 19 July 2022

MTR Corporation Limited Announces Change of Alternate Director

MTR Corporation Limited (SEHK:66) acquired an unknown majority stake in Octopus Holdings Limited from Bravo Transport Services Limited.

Non-Executive Director Sai-hung Lam has left the company

Upcoming dividend of HK$0.25 per share

First half 2021 earnings released: EPS HK$0.43 (vs HK$0.054 loss in 1H 2020)

Independent Non-Executive Director Ka-lai Li Li has left the company

Independent Non-Executive Director Yuk-choi Kwan has left the company

Upcoming dividend of HK$0.98 per share

Full year 2020 earnings released: HK$0.78 loss per share (vs HK$1.94 profit in FY 2019)

Revenue misses expectations

Full year 2020 earnings released: HK$0.78 loss per share (vs HK$1.94 profit in FY 2019)

MTR Corporation Limited Announces Interim Dividend, Expected to Be Distributed on 20 July 2021

New 90-day high: HK$46.30

MTR Corporation Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2020 Results on Mar 11, 2021

MTR Corporation Limited Announces Change of Executive Functions, Roles and Responsibilities of Members of the Executive Directorate and Change in Membership of the Executive Directorate

New 90-day high: HK$45.45

New 90-day high: HK$45.10

MTR Corporation Limited Announces Change of Alternate Director

New 90-day high: HK$42.95

New 90-day high: HK$42.10

New 90-day low: HK$37.90

MTR Corporation Limited Appoints David Tang Chi-Fai as Property and Australian Business Director, Effective October 1, 2020

First half earnings released

Upcoming Dividend of HK$0.25 Per Share

MTR Corporation Limited (SEHK:66) completed the acquisition of remaining 50% stake in Telford Plaza II in Kowloon Bay and a 21% stake in PopCorn 2 in Tseung Kwan O from New World Development Company Limited (SEHK:17).

First half earnings released

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity