JD Logistics Valuation

Is 2618 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2618 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2618 (HK$14.24) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$35.79)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2618 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2618?

Key metric: As 2618 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2618. This is calculated by dividing 2618's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2618's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.7x
EarningsCN¥5.51b
Market CapCN¥81.05b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2618's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2618 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average29.2x
598 Sinotrans
5.7x10.3%HK$35.9b
9699 Hangzhou SF Intra-city Industrial
98.6x55.0%HK$8.7b
636 Kerry Logistics Network
7.9x-0.9%HK$12.8b
3399 Guangdong Yueyun Transportation
4.7xn/aHK$1.1b
2618 JD Logistics
14.7x13.1%HK$87.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2618 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.7x) compared to the peer average (29.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2618's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Logistics Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
2618 14.7xIndustry Avg. 17.4xNo. of Companies25PE01224364860+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2618 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.7x) compared to the Asian Logistics industry average (17.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2618's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2618 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.7x
Fair PE Ratio10.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2618 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.7x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2618 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$14.24
HK$19.08
+34.0%
15.3%HK$25.01HK$12.93n/a18
Nov ’25HK$15.96
HK$16.14
+1.1%
22.3%HK$22.16HK$10.74n/a18
Oct ’25HK$14.00
HK$12.84
-8.3%
18.0%HK$20.03HK$10.35n/a18
Sep ’25HK$9.55
HK$12.78
+33.8%
18.2%HK$20.16HK$10.28n/a18
Aug ’25HK$7.94
HK$12.31
+55.1%
18.6%HK$18.99HK$9.39n/a18
Jul ’25HK$8.38
HK$12.36
+47.5%
17.7%HK$18.94HK$9.50n/a18
Jun ’25HK$8.52
HK$12.31
+44.4%
18.1%HK$18.99HK$8.81n/a19
May ’25HK$8.55
HK$11.50
+34.5%
18.6%HK$17.00HK$8.29n/a19
Apr ’25HK$7.97
HK$12.16
+52.6%
24.7%HK$20.94HK$8.28n/a18
Mar ’25HK$7.74
HK$14.10
+82.2%
32.4%HK$28.16HK$8.84n/a19
Feb ’25HK$7.18
HK$14.18
+97.5%
32.4%HK$28.32HK$8.89n/a19
Jan ’25HK$9.78
HK$15.45
+58.0%
32.6%HK$28.47HK$8.89n/a19
Dec ’24HK$9.29
HK$15.42
+66.0%
32.7%HK$28.41HK$8.19n/a19
Nov ’24HK$9.13
HK$16.34
+79.0%
26.4%HK$27.69HK$10.21HK$15.9618
Oct ’24HK$9.95
HK$18.52
+86.2%
31.5%HK$35.20HK$11.61HK$14.0018
Sep ’24HK$10.46
HK$18.71
+78.9%
31.0%HK$35.25HK$11.66HK$9.5518
Aug ’24HK$13.00
HK$19.48
+49.8%
27.3%HK$34.68HK$12.77HK$7.9418
Jul ’24HK$12.22
HK$19.49
+59.5%
27.8%HK$34.57HK$12.81HK$8.3818
Jun ’24HK$12.20
HK$19.97
+63.7%
27.5%HK$35.42HK$12.69HK$8.5218
May ’24HK$12.20
HK$20.82
+70.6%
28.7%HK$36.35HK$12.88HK$8.5517
Apr ’24HK$14.10
HK$21.74
+54.2%
28.0%HK$36.40HK$14.73HK$7.9717
Mar ’24HK$14.62
HK$23.81
+62.8%
24.8%HK$39.40HK$14.80HK$7.7417
Feb ’24HK$17.84
HK$23.81
+33.5%
24.8%HK$39.40HK$14.80HK$7.1817
Jan ’24HK$15.12
HK$22.78
+50.7%
29.6%HK$37.91HK$12.95HK$9.7817
Dec ’23HK$14.12
HK$22.17
+57.0%
29.4%HK$36.85HK$12.59HK$9.2917
Nov ’23HK$11.86
HK$22.74
+91.7%
26.5%HK$34.92HK$12.70HK$9.1317

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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