J&T Global Express Valuation

Is 1519 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1519 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1519 (HK$5.71) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$22.51)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1519 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1519?

Key metric: As 1519 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 1519. This is calculated by dividing 1519's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 1519's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.7x
Sales	US$9.68b
Market Cap	US$6.52b

1519 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	27.7x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 1519's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 1519 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	0.4x
598 Sinotrans	0.2x	4.5%	HK$35.6b
2618 JD Logistics	0.4x	7.6%	HK$85.2b
636 Kerry Logistics Network	0.2x	3.3%	HK$11.9b
9699 Hangzhou SF Intra-city Industrial	0.6x	17.5%	HK$8.6b
1519 J&T Global Express	0.7x	10.5%	HK$50.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 1519 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x) compared to the peer average (0.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 1519's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Logistics Industry?

4 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
6123 YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology	0.09x	n/a	US$68.73m
1292 Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics	0.04x	n/a	US$48.51m
8348 Tianjin Binhai Teda Logistics (Group)	0.02x	n/a	US$13.88m
8489 Grand Power Logistics Group	0.05x	n/a	US$6.01m

No more companies available in this PS range

4 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 1519 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x) compared to the Hong Kong Logistics industry average (0.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1519's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1519 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.7x
Fair PS Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 1519's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1519 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$5.71	HK$8.34 +46.1%	17.6%	HK$11.28	HK$6.10	n/a	13
Nov ’25	HK$6.26	HK$8.34 +33.3%	18.4%	HK$11.27	HK$6.10	n/a	12
Oct ’25	HK$7.02	HK$9.02 +28.5%	14.8%	HK$11.31	HK$7.41	n/a	9
Sep ’25	HK$6.04	HK$9.02 +49.4%	14.8%	HK$11.31	HK$7.41	n/a	9
Aug ’25	HK$6.14	HK$11.25 +83.1%	21.1%	HK$14.06	HK$7.09	n/a	8
Jul ’25	HK$7.13	HK$11.56 +62.1%	20.5%	HK$14.05	HK$7.09	n/a	7
Jun ’25	HK$7.63	HK$11.97 +56.9%	19.7%	HK$14.07	HK$7.10	n/a	7
May ’25	n/a	HK$12.30 0%	14.3%	HK$14.09	HK$9.31	n/a	7
Apr ’25	n/a	HK$12.29 0%	14.3%	HK$14.08	HK$9.30	n/a	7
Mar ’25	n/a	HK$14.25 0%	9.4%	HK$16.20	HK$12.02	n/a	5
Feb ’25	n/a	HK$14.30 0%	10.5%	HK$16.20	HK$12.02	n/a	4
Jan ’25	n/a	HK$13.78 0%	6.7%	HK$14.68	HK$11.99	n/a	5
Dec ’24	n/a	HK$13.36 0%	7.1%	HK$14.05	HK$12.01	n/a	3

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.