Stock Analysis

Orient Overseas (International)'s (HKG:316) investors will be pleased with their fantastic 969% return over the last five years

Published
SEHK:316

It might be of some concern to shareholders to see the Orient Overseas (International) Limited (HKG:316) share price down 19% in the last month. But that scarcely detracts from the really solid long term returns generated by the company over five years. We think most investors would be happy with the 188% return, over that period. To some, the recent pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a fast rise. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it's cheap now. While the returns over the last 5 years have been good, we do feel sorry for those shareholders who haven't held shares that long, because the share price is down 37% in the last three years.

Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

View our latest analysis for Orient Overseas (International)

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Over half a decade, Orient Overseas (International) managed to grow its earnings per share at 77% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 24% over the same period. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company. The reasonably low P/E ratio of 6.47 also suggests market apprehension.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

SEHK:316 Earnings Per Share Growth August 6th 2024

This free interactive report on Orient Overseas (International)'s earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Orient Overseas (International), it has a TSR of 969% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 0.9% in the twelve months, Orient Overseas (International) shareholders did even worse, losing 13% (even including dividends). Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 61% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Orient Overseas (International) (2 are concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

We will like Orient Overseas (International) better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.