Goldpac Group Limited's (HKG:3315) Shares Climb 26% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Explore Goldpac Group's Fair Values from the Community and select yours

Goldpac Group Limited (HKG:3315) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 26% share price jump in the last month. Looking further back, the 13% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

After such a large jump in price, Goldpac Group's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 17.2x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 12x and even P/E's below 7x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early.

For instance, Goldpac Group's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for Goldpac Group

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Goldpac Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Goldpac Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 61% decrease to the company's bottom line. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 62% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 21% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term earnings results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Goldpac Group is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Goldpac Group shares have received a push in the right direction, but its P/E is elevated too. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Goldpac Group revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Goldpac Group (1 is potentially serious!) that you should be aware of.

You might be able to find a better investment than Goldpac Group. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.