What Kingboard Holdings Limited's (HKG:148) 27% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Despite an already strong run, Kingboard Holdings Limited (HKG:148) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 27% in the last thirty days. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 19% over that time.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Kingboard Holdings' P/E ratio of 10.7x, since the median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio in Hong Kong is also close to 9x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

For instance, Kingboard Holdings' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader market in the near future. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

See our latest analysis for Kingboard Holdings

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Kingboard Holdings, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The P/E?

Kingboard Holdings' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 44% decrease to the company's bottom line. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 56% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 20% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Kingboard Holdings' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Kingboard Holdings' P/E is also back up to the market median. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Kingboard Holdings revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 1 warning sign for Kingboard Holdings that you should be aware of.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.