Vobile Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 3738 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

3738 (HK$3.49) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$2.64)

Is 3738 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3738 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3738 (HK$3.49) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$2.64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3738 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3738?

Key metric: As 3738 is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 3738. This is calculated by dividing 3738's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 3738's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	3.6x
Sales	HK$2.18b
Market Cap	HK$7.95b

3738 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	33.7x
PEG Ratio	22.9x

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 3738's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 3738 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	1x
596 Inspur Digital Enterprise Technology	0.5x	23.3%	HK$4.0b
9911 Newborn Town	1.1x	15.6%	HK$4.8b
1675 AsiaInfo Technologies	0.7x	4.3%	HK$5.3b
2121 AInnovation Technology Group	1.9x	13.2%	HK$2.8b
3738 Vobile Group	3.6x	17.2%	HK$7.9b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 3738 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.6x) compared to the peer average (1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 3738's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Software Industry?

7 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
6638 OneConnect Financial Technology	0.3x	-20.1%	US$103.77m
1522 BII Railway Transportation Technology Holdings	0.3x	n/a	US$71.44m
2392 Xuan Wu Cloud Technology Holdings	0.3x	n/a	US$60.89m
1933 OneForce Holdings	0.2x	n/a	US$9.30m

7 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 3738 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.6x) compared to the Hong Kong Software industry average (1.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3738's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3738 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	3.6x
Fair PS Ratio	2x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 3738 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 3738 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$3.49	HK$8.68 +148.8%	72.3%	HK$14.96	HK$2.40	n/a	2
Nov ’25	HK$3.05	HK$6.70 +119.6%	87.1%	HK$14.94	HK$2.38	n/a	3
Oct ’25	HK$2.18	HK$6.49 +197.7%	78.4%	HK$15.00	HK$2.39	n/a	4
Sep ’25	HK$1.45	HK$6.49 +347.6%	78.3%	HK$14.99	HK$2.40	n/a	4
Aug ’25	HK$1.26	HK$6.49 +415.1%	78.3%	HK$14.99	HK$2.40	n/a	4
Jul ’25	HK$1.25	HK$5.79 +363.4%	82.1%	HK$15.00	HK$2.40	n/a	5
Jun ’25	HK$1.26	HK$3.49 +176.7%	38.4%	HK$5.78	HK$2.40	n/a	4
May ’25	HK$1.38	HK$5.80 +320.5%	82.1%	HK$15.02	HK$2.40	n/a	5
Apr ’25	HK$1.61	HK$6.55 +307.0%	77.1%	HK$15.01	HK$2.40	n/a	4
Mar ’25	HK$1.88	HK$6.79 +261.3%	71.6%	HK$15.01	HK$3.00	n/a	4
Feb ’25	HK$1.42	HK$6.79 +378.4%	71.6%	HK$15.01	HK$3.00	n/a	4
Jan ’25	HK$2.41	HK$6.78 +181.2%	71.6%	HK$14.98	HK$3.00	HK$3.73	4
Dec ’24	HK$2.61	HK$8.02 +207.3%	62.4%	HK$14.96	HK$3.35	HK$3.25	3
Nov ’24	HK$1.99	HK$7.60 +281.9%	58.1%	HK$15.00	HK$3.35	HK$3.05	4
Oct ’24	HK$2.04	HK$7.60 +272.5%	58.1%	HK$15.00	HK$3.35	HK$2.18	4
Sep ’24	HK$2.26	HK$7.62 +237.0%	57.9%	HK$15.01	HK$3.37	HK$1.45	4
Aug ’24	HK$2.66	HK$7.39 +177.9%	52.0%	HK$14.99	HK$4.39	HK$1.26	5
Jul ’24	HK$2.39	HK$7.18 +200.6%	49.3%	HK$14.99	HK$4.39	HK$1.25	6
Jun ’24	HK$2.41	HK$5.63 +133.8%	10.9%	HK$6.29	HK$4.39	HK$1.26	6
May ’24	HK$3.04	HK$8.13 +167.4%	75.0%	HK$23.00	HK$4.40	HK$1.38	7
Apr ’24	HK$3.30	HK$8.41 +154.8%	77.5%	HK$22.93	HK$4.39	HK$1.61	6
Mar ’24	HK$4.12	HK$8.41 +104.1%	77.5%	HK$22.93	HK$4.39	HK$1.88	6
Feb ’24	HK$4.78	HK$8.41 +75.9%	77.5%	HK$22.93	HK$4.39	HK$1.42	6
Jan ’24	HK$3.36	HK$8.43 +150.8%	76.9%	HK$22.87	HK$4.38	HK$2.41	6

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/01/03 19:29
End of Day Share Price	2025/01/03 00:00
Earnings	2024/06/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Vobile Group Limited is covered by 7 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
CH Chan	CLSA
Tianzi Fu	Everbright Securities Co. Ltd.
Heng Zhang	Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.