There's Reason For Concern Over TI Cloud Inc.'s (HKG:2167) Price

When close to half the companies in the Software industry in Hong Kong have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.3x, you may consider TI Cloud Inc. (HKG:2167) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 4.2x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Check out our latest analysis for TI Cloud

How Has TI Cloud Performed Recently?

TI Cloud hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is high because investors think this poor revenue performance will turn the corner. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on TI Cloud will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

TI Cloud's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 4.6%. Regardless, revenue has managed to lift by a handy 14% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the revenue growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 20% per year during the coming three years according to the lone analyst following the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 34% per year growth forecast for the broader industry.

With this in consideration, we believe it doesn't make sense that TI Cloud's P/S is outpacing its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Despite analysts forecasting some poorer-than-industry revenue growth figures for TI Cloud, this doesn't appear to be impacting the P/S in the slightest. The weakness in the company's revenue estimate doesn't bode well for the elevated P/S, which could take a fall if the revenue sentiment doesn't improve. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for TI Cloud (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you need to take into consideration.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.