Some Confidence Is Lacking In MEGAIN Holding (Cayman) Co., Ltd. (HKG:6939) As Shares Slide 25%

The MEGAIN Holding (Cayman) Co., Ltd. (HKG:6939) share price has softened a substantial 25% over the previous 30 days, handing back much of the gains the stock has made lately. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 41% share price drop.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, it's still not a stretch to say that MEGAIN Holding (Cayman)'s price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.4x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Semiconductor industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 1.3x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

See our latest analysis for MEGAIN Holding (Cayman)

What Does MEGAIN Holding (Cayman)'s P/S Mean For Shareholders?

For example, consider that MEGAIN Holding (Cayman)'s financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing revenue performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on MEGAIN Holding (Cayman)'s earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For MEGAIN Holding (Cayman)?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like MEGAIN Holding (Cayman)'s to be considered reasonable.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 18%. Regardless, revenue has managed to lift by a handy 10.0% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the revenue growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 18% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's curious that MEGAIN Holding (Cayman)'s P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Following MEGAIN Holding (Cayman)'s share price tumble, its P/S is just clinging on to the industry median P/S. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of MEGAIN Holding (Cayman) revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't resulting in a lower P/S as per our expectations, given they look worse than current industry outlook. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, the probability of a share price decline will become quite substantial, placing shareholders at risk.

It is also worth noting that we have found 6 warning signs for MEGAIN Holding (Cayman) (3 are significant!) that you need to take into consideration.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.