Alibaba Group Holding Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Alibaba Group Holding is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 14.9% and 7.3% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 17.7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 10.3% in 3 years.

Key information

14.9%

Earnings growth rate

17.7%

EPS growth rate

Multiline Retail earnings growth	31.2%
Revenue growth rate	7.3%
Future return on equity	10.3%
Analyst coverage	Good
Last updated	23 Dec 2024

Recent future growth updates

No updates

Recent updates

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

SZSC:9988 - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (CNY Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
3/31/2027	1,170,501	148,507	168,651	213,171	34
3/31/2026	1,084,822	129,417	147,388	197,716	50
3/31/2025	999,859	123,795	133,105	174,823	45
9/30/2024	961,961	85,846	102,693	153,130	N/A
6/30/2024	950,248	69,678	125,900	170,923	N/A
3/31/2024	941,168	79,741	149,664	182,593	N/A
12/31/2023	927,494	99,987	156,302	190,654	N/A
9/30/2023	914,902	132,369	166,879	213,308	N/A
6/30/2023	897,288	84,102	176,837	211,189	N/A
3/31/2023	868,687	72,509	165,400	199,752	N/A
12/31/2022	864,539	32,752	107,987	161,311	N/A
9/30/2022	859,363	13,629	100,983	154,307	N/A
6/30/2022	852,877	39,557	89,701	143,025	N/A
3/31/2022	853,062	61,959	89,435	142,759	N/A
12/31/2021	836,405	72,721	131,166	173,982	N/A
9/30/2021	814,909	124,456	154,008	196,824	N/A
6/30/2021	769,278	147,858	172,474	215,290	N/A
3/31/2021	717,289	150,308	188,970	231,786	N/A
12/31/2020	644,208	158,949	177,029	209,767	N/A
9/30/2020	584,580	131,831	170,326	203,064	N/A
6/30/2020	548,538	175,602	163,356	196,094	N/A
3/31/2020	509,711	149,263	147,869	180,607	N/A
12/31/2019	488,895	171,931	147,353	196,996	N/A
9/30/2019	444,717	152,674	143,087	165,389	N/A
6/30/2019	410,848	100,167	111,032	149,470	N/A
3/31/2019	376,844	87,600	101,332	150,975	N/A
12/31/2018	345,278	69,331	116,969	146,805	N/A
9/30/2018	311,028	60,352	88,445	136,949	N/A
6/30/2018	281,002	57,987	N/A	136,049	N/A
3/31/2018	250,266	63,985	N/A	125,805	N/A
12/31/2017	226,913	67,071	N/A	122,168	N/A
9/30/2017	197,133	60,853	N/A	104,542	N/A
6/30/2017	176,303	50,808	N/A	91,241	N/A
3/31/2017	158,273	43,675	N/A	82,854	N/A
12/31/2016	143,878	38,393	N/A	74,662	N/A
9/30/2016	125,173	33,036	N/A	63,476	N/A
6/30/2016	113,052	48,167	N/A	61,394	N/A
3/31/2016	101,143	71,460	N/A	56,836	N/A
12/31/2015	94,384	68,988	N/A	57,521	N/A
9/30/2015	86,020	62,426	N/A	50,699	N/A
6/30/2015	80,678	42,648	N/A	41,440	N/A
3/31/2015	76,204	24,149	N/A	41,217	N/A
12/31/2014	70,810	26,799	N/A	37,250	N/A
9/30/2014	63,376	29,069	N/A	32,764	N/A
6/30/2014	57,497	31,036	N/A	31,425	N/A
3/31/2014	52,504	23,076	N/A	26,379	N/A
12/31/2013	49,147	21,730	N/A	26,659	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 9988's forecast earnings growth (14.9% per year) is above the savings rate (2.3%).

Earnings vs Market: 9988's earnings (14.9% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Hong Kong market (11.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 9988's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 9988's revenue (7.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (7.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 9988's revenue (7.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 9988's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.3%).

Discover growth companies

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/26 22:39
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Alibaba Group Holding Limited is covered by 99 analysts. 50 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Richard Kramer	Arete Research Services LLP
Zixiao Yang	Arete Research Services LLP
James Kelleher	Argus Research Company