Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (SHSC:1929) Stock Valuation, Peer Comparison & Price Targets

Q: What is the Fair Price of 1929 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

1929 (HK$7.04) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$23.54)

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1929 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1929 (HK$7.04) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$23.54)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1929 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1929?

Key metric: As 1929 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1929. This is calculated by dividing 1929's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1929's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	10.8x
Earnings	HK$6.50b
Market Cap	HK$70.31b

1929 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	9.1x
PEG Ratio	1.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1929's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1929 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	22.7x
9992 Pop Mart International Group	64.8x	35.0%	HK$106.4b
590 Luk Fook Holdings (International)	5x	2.0%	HK$8.8b
178 Sa Sa International Holdings	13.8x	4.1%	HK$2.0b
398 Oriental Watch Holdings	7.2x	n/a	HK$1.8b
1929 Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group	10.8x	7.3%	HK$70.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1929 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x) compared to the peer average (22.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1929's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Specialty Retail Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
84 Stelux Holdings International	0.2x	n/a	US$10.26m

No more companies available in this PE range

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1929 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x) compared to the Hong Kong Specialty Retail industry average (9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1929's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1929 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	10.8x
Fair PE Ratio	11.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1929 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1929 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$7.04	HK$9.00 +27.8%	20.3%	HK$14.54	HK$6.78	n/a	17
Nov ’25	HK$7.29	HK$9.00 +23.5%	20.3%	HK$14.54	HK$6.78	n/a	17
Oct ’25	HK$8.75	HK$9.72 +11.1%	28.7%	HK$17.00	HK$6.50	n/a	17
Sep ’25	HK$6.65	HK$10.26 +54.3%	27.1%	HK$17.00	HK$6.50	n/a	17
Aug ’25	HK$6.85	HK$10.57 +54.3%	26.4%	HK$17.00	HK$6.50	n/a	17
Jul ’25	HK$8.45	HK$12.35 +46.2%	24.4%	HK$18.60	HK$7.20	n/a	17
Jun ’25	HK$10.04	HK$14.24 +41.8%	17.7%	HK$19.00	HK$8.50	n/a	18
May ’25	HK$10.76	HK$14.32 +33.1%	17.2%	HK$19.00	HK$8.50	n/a	18
Apr ’25	HK$11.54	HK$14.57 +26.2%	17.5%	HK$20.00	HK$9.40	n/a	17
Mar ’25	HK$11.50	HK$14.78 +28.5%	16.9%	HK$20.00	HK$9.40	n/a	18
Feb ’25	HK$10.94	HK$14.78 +35.1%	16.9%	HK$20.00	HK$9.40	n/a	18
Jan ’25	HK$11.62	HK$15.17 +30.6%	16.9%	HK$20.00	HK$8.90	n/a	19
Dec ’24	HK$11.10	HK$15.17 +36.7%	16.9%	HK$20.00	HK$8.90	n/a	19
Nov ’24	HK$11.20	HK$15.66 +39.8%	14.6%	HK$20.00	HK$11.80	HK$7.29	19
Oct ’24	HK$11.80	HK$16.36 +38.6%	13.5%	HK$20.00	HK$11.80	HK$8.75	18
Sep ’24	HK$11.90	HK$16.36 +37.5%	13.5%	HK$20.00	HK$11.80	HK$6.65	18
Aug ’24	HK$13.36	HK$16.46 +23.2%	13.6%	HK$20.00	HK$11.80	HK$6.85	18
Jul ’24	HK$14.08	HK$16.69 +18.5%	14.5%	HK$20.73	HK$11.80	HK$8.45	19
Jun ’24	HK$13.62	HK$17.81 +30.7%	15.3%	HK$21.00	HK$11.80	HK$10.04	19
May ’24	HK$15.70	HK$17.65 +12.4%	15.2%	HK$21.00	HK$11.80	HK$10.76	18
Apr ’24	HK$15.58	HK$17.57 +12.8%	15.3%	HK$22.00	HK$11.80	HK$11.54	18
Mar ’24	HK$15.52	HK$17.80 +14.7%	13.8%	HK$22.00	HK$11.80	HK$11.50	19
Feb ’24	HK$16.66	HK$17.47 +4.9%	13.1%	HK$20.50	HK$11.80	HK$10.94	19
Jan ’24	HK$15.92	HK$16.35 +2.7%	11.4%	HK$19.00	HK$11.80	HK$11.62	18
Dec ’23	HK$14.44	HK$16.35 +13.3%	11.4%	HK$19.00	HK$11.80	HK$11.10	18
Nov ’23	HK$14.10	HK$16.37 +16.1%	12.2%	HK$19.50	HK$11.40	HK$11.20	18

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Valuation