Is Wine's Link International Holdings (HKG:8509) A Risky Investment?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Wine's Link International Holdings Limited (HKG:8509) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Wine's Link International Holdings

What Is Wine's Link International Holdings's Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2024 Wine's Link International Holdings had HK$134.8m of debt, an increase on HK$129.2m, over one year. Net debt is about the same, since the it doesn't have much cash.

How Strong Is Wine's Link International Holdings' Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Wine's Link International Holdings had liabilities of HK$155.4m due within a year, and liabilities of HK$143.0k falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of HK$1.02m and HK$54.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling HK$100.6m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of HK$136.0m. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Wine's Link International Holdings's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 2.1 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 5.9 times last year. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. Importantly, Wine's Link International Holdings grew its EBIT by 84% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Wine's Link International Holdings's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, Wine's Link International Holdings's free cash flow amounted to 30% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.

Our View

On our analysis Wine's Link International Holdings's EBIT growth rate should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For example, its level of total liabilities makes us a little nervous about its debt. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Wine's Link International Holdings's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Wine's Link International Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.