While Poly Property Group Co., Limited (HKG:119) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the past couple of months on the SEHK. Less-covered, small caps sees more of an opportunity for mispricing due to the lack of information available to the public, which can be a good thing. So, could the stock still be trading at a low price relative to its actual value? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Poly Property Group’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
What is Poly Property Group worth?
According to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average, the stock price seems to be justfied. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 9.71x is currently trading slightly above its industry peers’ ratio of 8.71x, which means if you buy Poly Property Group today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe that Poly Property Group should be trading at this level in the long run, then there should only be a fairly immaterial downside vs other industry peers. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Poly Property Group’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
What kind of growth will Poly Property Group generate?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. With profit expected to more than double over the next couple of years, the future seems bright for Poly Property Group. It looks like higher cash flow is on the cards for the stock, which should feed into a higher share valuation.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? 119’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the financial strength of the company. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at 119? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio?
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on 119, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the optimistic forecast is encouraging for 119, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Poly Property Group at this point in time. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Poly Property Group (1 shouldn't be ignored) you should be familiar with.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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