Longfor Group Holdings Limited

SZSC:960 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$78.4b

Longfor Group Holdings Valuation

Is 960 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 960 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 960 (HK$11.38) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$48.33)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 960 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 960?

Key metric: As 960 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 960. This is calculated by dividing 960's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 960's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio6.8x
EarningsCN¥10.66b
Market CapCN¥72.79b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 960's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 960 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.7x
1113 CK Asset Holdings
7.1x1.4%HK$110.4b
688 China Overseas Land & Investment
6.1x5.7%HK$148.4b
12 Henderson Land Development
18.4x17.3%HK$119.1b
83 Sino Land
15.3x6.9%HK$67.5b
960 Longfor Group Holdings
6.8x4.7%HK$78.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 960 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.8x) compared to the peer average (11.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 960's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
29 Dynamic Holdings
0.3xn/aUS$227.42m
3883 China Aoyuan Group
0.07xn/aUS$153.39m
2768 Jiayuan International Group
1.4x31.6%US$151.18m
2117 Datang Group Holdings
1.2xn/aUS$87.18m
960 6.8xIndustry Avg. 7.3xNo. of Companies16PE0612182430+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 960 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.8x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (7.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 960's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

960 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.8x
Fair PE Ratio9.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 960 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 960 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$11.38
HK$12.61
+10.8%
24.7%HK$19.96HK$8.79n/a21
Nov ’25HK$13.04
HK$12.79
-1.9%
24.5%HK$20.21HK$8.90n/a21
Oct ’25HK$15.04
HK$11.79
-21.6%
20.4%HK$20.53HK$9.04n/a21
Sep ’25HK$8.81
HK$11.66
+32.3%
12.5%HK$15.07HK$9.34n/a21
Aug ’25HK$9.61
HK$13.89
+44.6%
20.2%HK$21.95HK$9.64n/a20
Jul ’25HK$10.72
HK$15.31
+42.9%
23.0%HK$23.58HK$9.51n/a21
Jun ’25HK$12.30
HK$15.19
+23.5%
23.5%HK$23.70HK$9.56n/a21
May ’25HK$11.80
HK$13.87
+17.5%
21.2%HK$23.71HK$9.56n/a21
Apr ’25HK$11.06
HK$13.83
+25.1%
21.4%HK$23.75HK$9.58n/a21
Mar ’25HK$9.77
HK$17.73
+81.4%
31.1%HK$32.15HK$8.95n/a22
Feb ’25HK$8.46
HK$20.52
+142.5%
30.2%HK$34.88HK$9.01n/a22
Jan ’25HK$12.50
HK$24.76
+98.1%
19.4%HK$35.49HK$17.49n/a21
Dec ’24HK$13.70
HK$25.45
+85.8%
17.1%HK$35.39HK$17.43n/a21
Nov ’24HK$11.32
HK$26.28
+132.1%
25.9%HK$50.89HK$17.00HK$13.0421
Oct ’24HK$14.08
HK$26.54
+88.5%
24.0%HK$50.87HK$19.90HK$15.0422
Sep ’24HK$16.52
HK$27.47
+66.3%
23.7%HK$51.20HK$20.03HK$8.8121
Aug ’24HK$19.64
HK$30.83
+57.0%
18.8%HK$51.87HK$23.50HK$9.6121
Jul ’24HK$19.04
HK$31.52
+65.6%
18.7%HK$52.41HK$24.06HK$10.7220
Jun ’24HK$14.50
HK$31.68
+118.5%
18.7%HK$52.77HK$24.22HK$12.3020
May ’24HK$21.35
HK$32.71
+53.2%
19.1%HK$54.85HK$24.89HK$11.8020
Apr ’24HK$22.15
HK$32.77
+47.9%
19.7%HK$54.89HK$24.90HK$11.0620
Mar ’24HK$24.55
HK$37.31
+52.0%
24.5%HK$55.88HK$25.18HK$9.7720
Feb ’24HK$25.85
HK$37.29
+44.2%
23.5%HK$56.80HK$25.60HK$8.4619
Jan ’24HK$24.30
HK$36.15
+48.8%
26.5%HK$55.37HK$15.79HK$12.5019
Dec ’23HK$23.20
HK$35.46
+52.8%
29.8%HK$54.04HK$15.41HK$13.7018
Nov ’23HK$10.82
HK$34.96
+223.1%
30.7%HK$52.60HK$15.00HK$11.3219

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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