Swire Properties (SZSC:1972) Stock Valuation, Peer Comparison & Price Targets

Q: What is the Fair Price of 1972 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

1972 (HK$16.02) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$18.72)

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1972 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1972 (HK$16.02) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$18.72)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1972 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1972?

Key metric: As 1972 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1972. This is calculated by dividing 1972's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1972's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	42.2x
Earnings	HK$2.21b
Market Cap	HK$93.28b

1972 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	8.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	14.9x
PEG Ratio	1.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1972's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1972 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	19.5x
1997 Wharf Real Estate Investment	33.8x	23.1%	HK$64.4b
1209 China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services	18.6x	14.3%	HK$68.7b
101 Hang Lung Properties	11.6x	13.2%	HK$30.4b
2602 Onewo	13.9x	13.6%	HK$25.6b
1972 Swire Properties	42.2x	25.6%	HK$93.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1972 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.2x) compared to the peer average (19.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1972's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

6 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
29 Dynamic Holdings	0.3x	n/a	US$226.01m
3883 China Aoyuan Group	0.07x	n/a	US$158.43m
2768 Jiayuan International Group	1.4x	31.6%	US$151.18m
2117 Datang Group Holdings	1.2x	n/a	US$87.18m

6 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1972 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.2x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (7.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1972's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1972 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	42.2x
Fair PE Ratio	17.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1972 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1972 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$16.02	HK$18.81 +17.4%	11.3%	HK$22.50	HK$15.50	n/a	14
Nov ’25	HK$16.20	HK$18.62 +15.0%	10.5%	HK$22.50	HK$15.50	n/a	14
Oct ’25	HK$15.98	HK$18.25 +14.2%	9.5%	HK$22.50	HK$15.50	n/a	14
Sep ’25	HK$14.38	HK$17.93 +24.7%	11.4%	HK$22.50	HK$14.00	n/a	14
Aug ’25	HK$12.38	HK$17.71 +43.0%	14.0%	HK$22.50	HK$12.00	n/a	14
Jul ’25	HK$12.44	HK$19.77 +58.9%	14.9%	HK$28.50	HK$16.00	n/a	15
Jun ’25	HK$14.34	HK$19.77 +37.9%	14.9%	HK$28.50	HK$16.00	n/a	15
May ’25	HK$16.30	HK$19.78 +21.3%	14.9%	HK$28.50	HK$16.00	n/a	15
Apr ’25	HK$16.44	HK$19.70 +19.8%	15.4%	HK$28.50	HK$16.00	n/a	15
Mar ’25	HK$15.90	HK$19.83 +24.7%	18.6%	HK$31.00	HK$15.00	n/a	15
Feb ’25	HK$14.62	HK$20.42 +39.7%	21.5%	HK$31.00	HK$15.00	n/a	14
Jan ’25	HK$15.80	HK$21.43 +35.6%	19.4%	HK$31.00	HK$15.00	n/a	14
Dec ’24	HK$15.28	HK$21.62 +41.5%	19.4%	HK$31.00	HK$15.00	n/a	13
Nov ’24	HK$15.14	HK$21.62 +42.8%	19.4%	HK$31.00	HK$15.00	HK$16.20	13
Oct ’24	HK$16.34	HK$21.82 +33.5%	18.7%	HK$31.00	HK$16.00	HK$15.98	13
Sep ’24	HK$16.40	HK$22.28 +35.8%	16.9%	HK$31.00	HK$17.60	HK$14.38	13
Aug ’24	HK$19.22	HK$22.70 +18.1%	17.3%	HK$31.00	HK$16.50	HK$12.38	13
Jul ’24	HK$19.26	HK$22.84 +18.6%	17.0%	HK$31.00	HK$16.50	HK$12.44	13
Jun ’24	HK$18.72	HK$22.92 +22.4%	16.8%	HK$31.00	HK$16.50	HK$14.34	13
May ’24	HK$21.05	HK$22.52 +7.0%	18.2%	HK$31.00	HK$16.50	HK$16.30	13
Apr ’24	HK$20.20	HK$22.54 +11.6%	18.2%	HK$31.00	HK$16.50	HK$16.44	13
Mar ’24	HK$21.15	HK$22.16 +4.8%	20.3%	HK$31.00	HK$16.50	HK$15.90	13
Feb ’24	HK$21.75	HK$21.87 +0.6%	20.7%	HK$31.00	HK$16.50	HK$14.62	13
Jan ’24	HK$19.84	HK$20.99 +5.8%	19.7%	HK$31.00	HK$16.50	HK$15.80	13
Dec ’23	HK$17.84	HK$21.74 +21.9%	19.8%	HK$31.00	HK$16.50	HK$15.28	13
Nov ’23	HK$15.20	HK$23.24 +52.9%	16.5%	HK$31.00	HK$16.80	HK$15.14	13

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Swire Properties Valuation