Sunac Services Holdings (SZSC:1516) Stock Valuation, Peer Comparison & Price Targets

Q: What is the Fair Price of 1516 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

1516 (HK$1.77) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$21.28)

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1516 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1516 (HK$1.77) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$21.28)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1516 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1516?

Key metric: As 1516 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 1516. This is calculated by dividing 1516's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 1516's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.7x
Sales	CN¥7.10b
Market Cap	CN¥5.03b

1516 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-3.9x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 1516's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 1516 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	1x
9666 Jinke Smart Services Group	0.8x	5.6%	HK$4.0b
3319 A-Living Smart City Services	0.3x	2.4%	HK$4.2b
410 SOHO China	2.2x	n/a	HK$3.8b
6666 Evergrande Property Services Group	0.7x	n/a	HK$9.0b
1516 Sunac Services Holdings	0.7x	6.5%	HK$5.4b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 1516 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x) compared to the peer average (1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 1516's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

90 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
1908 C&D International Investment Group	0.2x	3.1%	US$3.37b
3900 Greentown China Holdings	0.2x	-0.4%	US$3.02b
1918 Sunac China Holdings	0.2x	-14.2%	US$2.80b
817 China Jinmao Holdings Group	0.2x	-1.0%	US$1.82b

90 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 1516 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1516's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1516 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.7x
Fair PS Ratio	0.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 1516 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1516 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	HK$1.77	HK$2.08 +17.5%	28.8%	HK$3.18	HK$1.20	n/a	7
Nov ’25	HK$1.96	HK$2.06 +5.0%	27.4%	HK$3.18	HK$1.20	n/a	8
Oct ’25	HK$2.27	HK$1.94 -14.5%	21.1%	HK$2.50	HK$1.20	n/a	7
Sep ’25	HK$1.69	HK$1.83 +8.0%	17.3%	HK$2.20	HK$1.20	n/a	8
Aug ’25	HK$1.71	HK$1.87 +9.1%	19.9%	HK$2.48	HK$1.20	n/a	8
Jul ’25	HK$1.81	HK$1.87 +3.1%	19.9%	HK$2.48	HK$1.20	n/a	8
Jun ’25	HK$1.88	HK$1.87 -0.7%	19.9%	HK$2.48	HK$1.20	n/a	8
May ’25	HK$1.96	HK$1.80 -8.0%	19.5%	HK$2.48	HK$1.20	n/a	8
Apr ’25	HK$1.86	HK$1.95 +4.6%	20.0%	HK$2.48	HK$1.20	n/a	8
Mar ’25	HK$1.98	HK$2.04 +3.2%	22.5%	HK$2.70	HK$1.20	n/a	8
Feb ’25	HK$1.61	HK$2.08 +29.2%	20.7%	HK$2.70	HK$1.20	n/a	9
Jan ’25	HK$1.87	HK$2.28 +21.9%	18.2%	HK$2.70	HK$1.20	n/a	9
Dec ’24	HK$2.27	HK$2.28 +0.4%	18.2%	HK$2.70	HK$1.20	n/a	9
Nov ’24	HK$2.07	HK$2.28 +10.1%	18.2%	HK$2.70	HK$1.20	HK$1.96	9
Oct ’24	HK$2.47	HK$2.44 -1.1%	25.6%	HK$3.90	HK$1.20	HK$2.27	10
Sep ’24	HK$2.45	HK$2.59 +5.6%	25.1%	HK$3.90	HK$1.30	HK$1.69	11
Aug ’24	HK$2.48	HK$2.83 +14.0%	25.3%	HK$3.90	HK$1.30	HK$1.71	11
Jul ’24	HK$2.21	HK$3.00 +35.5%	24.1%	HK$3.90	HK$1.30	HK$1.81	11
Jun ’24	HK$2.12	HK$3.00 +41.3%	24.1%	HK$3.90	HK$1.30	HK$1.88	11
May ’24	HK$2.83	HK$3.00 +5.8%	24.1%	HK$3.90	HK$1.30	HK$1.96	11
Apr ’24	HK$3.35	HK$2.93 -12.7%	23.3%	HK$3.60	HK$1.30	HK$1.86	10
Mar ’24	HK$3.35	HK$4.67 +39.4%	81.3%	HK$15.80	HK$1.30	HK$1.98	11
Feb ’24	HK$4.01	HK$4.68 +16.7%	81.0%	HK$15.80	HK$1.30	HK$1.61	11
Jan ’24	HK$4.20	HK$4.31 +2.5%	90.4%	HK$15.80	HK$1.30	HK$1.87	11
Dec ’23	HK$3.75	HK$4.05 +7.9%	98.4%	HK$15.80	HK$1.30	HK$2.27	11
Nov ’23	HK$1.42	HK$4.33 +205.2%	90.7%	HK$15.80	HK$1.30	HK$2.07	12

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Sunac Services Holdings Valuation