Greentown Service Group Co. Ltd.

SHSC:2869 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$12.1b

Greentown Service Group Valuation

Is 2869 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2869 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2869 (HK$3.84) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$10.58)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2869 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2869?

Key metric: As 2869 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2869. This is calculated by dividing 2869's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2869's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.3x
EarningsCN¥694.67m
Market CapCN¥11.32b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2869's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2869 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.4x
6049 Poly Property Services
10.9x10.3%HK$17.1b
10 Hang Lung Group
6.7xn/aHK$13.5b
6666 Evergrande Property Services Group
6.5xn/aHK$8.8b
2602 Onewo
13.6x13.6%HK$25.2b
2869 Greentown Service Group
16.3x13.8%HK$12.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2869 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the peer average (9.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2869's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
29 Dynamic Holdings
0.3xn/aUS$227.56m
2768 Jiayuan International Group
1.4x31.6%US$151.18m
3883 China Aoyuan Group
0.06xn/aUS$123.78m
2117 Datang Group Holdings
1.2xn/aUS$87.18m
2869 16.3xIndustry Avg. 7.1xNo. of Companies17PE0612182430+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2869 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2869's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2869 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.3x
Fair PE Ratio9.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2869 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2869 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$3.84
HK$4.59
+19.4%
18.1%HK$6.14HK$3.19n/a17
Nov ’25HK$4.17
HK$4.62
+10.9%
18.4%HK$6.20HK$3.23n/a17
Oct ’25HK$4.67
HK$4.45
-4.8%
19.1%HK$6.29HK$3.07n/a18
Sep ’25HK$3.63
HK$4.33
+19.2%
18.4%HK$6.24HK$3.05n/a19
Aug ’25HK$3.39
HK$3.89
+14.7%
18.9%HK$6.11HK$2.84n/a18
Jul ’25HK$3.37
HK$3.73
+10.7%
13.1%HK$4.60HK$2.83n/a17
Jun ’25HK$3.80
HK$3.74
-1.5%
12.9%HK$4.60HK$2.82n/a17
May ’25HK$3.59
HK$3.63
+1.0%
12.1%HK$4.37HK$2.82n/a16
Apr ’25HK$2.99
HK$3.74
+25.0%
19.0%HK$5.95HK$2.82n/a17
Mar ’25HK$2.80
HK$4.21
+50.4%
20.5%HK$5.97HK$2.83n/a18
Feb ’25HK$2.40
HK$4.46
+85.7%
19.6%HK$5.97HK$3.18n/a19
Jan ’25HK$2.91
HK$4.78
+64.4%
18.1%HK$6.14HK$3.48n/a19
Dec ’24HK$3.00
HK$4.75
+58.3%
17.3%HK$6.06HK$3.38n/a18
Nov ’24HK$3.15
HK$4.75
+50.8%
17.3%HK$6.06HK$3.38HK$4.1718
Oct ’24HK$3.52
HK$4.87
+38.4%
16.8%HK$6.08HK$3.39HK$4.6719
Sep ’24HK$3.66
HK$5.07
+38.4%
14.5%HK$6.13HK$3.42HK$3.6318
Aug ’24HK$4.02
HK$5.38
+33.9%
15.7%HK$7.08HK$4.00HK$3.3919
Jul ’24HK$3.75
HK$5.46
+45.6%
13.1%HK$6.85HK$4.15HK$3.3719
Jun ’24HK$4.04
HK$5.65
+39.9%
13.0%HK$7.12HK$4.31HK$3.8019
May ’24HK$4.81
HK$5.65
+17.5%
13.0%HK$7.12HK$4.31HK$3.5919
Apr ’24HK$4.96
HK$5.66
+14.2%
13.2%HK$7.12HK$4.31HK$2.9919
Mar ’24HK$5.59
HK$6.97
+24.8%
22.3%HK$10.47HK$4.74HK$2.8017
Feb ’24HK$5.86
HK$7.32
+25.0%
22.8%HK$10.67HK$4.83HK$2.4017
Jan ’24HK$5.18
HK$7.52
+45.2%
23.3%HK$10.46HK$4.74HK$2.9116
Dec ’23HK$5.24
HK$7.43
+41.8%
20.7%HK$10.18HK$4.56HK$3.0017
Nov ’23HK$3.53
HK$7.53
+113.4%
20.9%HK$10.12HK$4.53HK$3.1518

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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