Longfor Group Holdings Limited Just Recorded A 36% Revenue Beat: Here's What Analysts Think

Last week, you might have seen that Longfor Group Holdings Limited (HKG:960) released its half-yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.8% to HK$11.25 in the past week. Revenue of CN¥59b came in a notable 36% ahead of expectations, while statutory earnings of CN¥1.57 were in line with what the analysts had been forecasting. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 22 analysts covering Longfor Group Holdings, is for revenues of CN¥114.6b in 2025. This implies a not inconsiderable 18% reduction in Longfor Group Holdings' revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 45% to CN¥0.60 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥114.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.58 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Longfor Group Holdings

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of HK$11.93, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Longfor Group Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$15.76 and the most bearish at HK$9.57 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Longfor Group Holdings shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 5.7% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 32% decline in revenue until the end of 2025. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 3.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Longfor Group Holdings to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Longfor Group Holdings following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Longfor Group Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$11.93, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Longfor Group Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Longfor Group Holdings (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.