Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Talent Property Group Limited (HKG:760) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
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What Is Talent Property Group's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Talent Property Group had CN¥438.5m of debt in December 2022, down from CN¥562.7m, one year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥76.9m, its net debt is less, at about CN¥361.6m.
How Strong Is Talent Property Group's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Talent Property Group had liabilities of CN¥1.85b falling due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥509.3m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥76.9m and CN¥33.5m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total CN¥2.25b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥144.4m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Talent Property Group would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Talent Property Group's debt is 4.7 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 2.6 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. The good news is that Talent Property Group improved its EBIT by 4.8% over the last twelve months, thus gradually reducing its debt levels relative to its earnings. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Talent Property Group will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last two years, Talent Property Group created free cash flow amounting to 16% of its EBIT, an uninspiring performance. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.
Our View
We'd go so far as to say Talent Property Group's level of total liabilities was disappointing. Having said that, its ability to grow its EBIT isn't such a worry. We're quite clear that we consider Talent Property Group to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. We've identified 3 warning signs with Talent Property Group (at least 1 which is potentially serious) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About SEHK:760
Talent Property Group
An investment holding company, invests in, develops, and manages real estate properties in the People’s Republic of China.
Flawless balance sheet and slightly overvalued.